Oregon St Beavers 2022 College Football Preview

Oregon St Beavers 2022 College Football Preview

June 11, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 7-6

ATS – 7-6

Yes, guy.

The Beavers booked a couple of upsets along the way to finish with a mark of 7-6 and that was their first winning season since 2013 (!) when they also went, wait for it, 7-6. They smoked USC on the road early in the campaign and even took down the mighty PAC 12 champs from Utah. It’s going to be next to impossible to sneak up on the competition this year. Do they have the MINERALS to take the next step?

Oregon St Beavers 2022 Outlook


The Beavers used a punishing ground game (212 YPG, #19 FBS) to do the majority of their damage last year and 2022 shouldn’t be much different. They need to replace a 1,300-yard RB in BJ Baylor but still have a deep RB room. Deshaun Fenwick and Trey Lowe averaged 5.7 and 6.4 YPC respectively LY and note that they have the HUMAN BATTERING RAM in QB Jack Colletto who is famous for getting tough yards and TDs (8 in 2021). QB Chance Nolan needs to cut down on the mistakes (19-10 TD to INT LY) and will have to work without the services of #1 WR Trevon Bradford. It looks like another year of spreading the ball around to a bunch of wideouts as well as emerging TE Luke Musgrave. The THROW GAME doesn’t look very potent so they’ll go as far as the ground attack takes them. The good news is that the OL promises to be solid once again despite the loss of 1st Team PAC 12 center Nathan Eldridge. We’ll call for a similar level of production as the L3Y (31.2, 28.9, 31.2 PPG).


Oregon St made yuuuge strides on defense last year and allowed 26 PPG (#60 FBS) and 387 YPG (#73) after allowing 33 and 442 respectively in 2020. They were much better down the stretch after firing their DC and Trent Bray holds the reins once again heading into this season. They were average vs the run (#52 FBS) and the pass LY (#64 pass eff D) and PURE FILTH on 3rd downs (#127 FBS, 50.3%). We expect mild improvement despite losing leading tackler LB Avery Roberts (128 tackles, 9.5 TFL) as they have an experienced front, a talented and veteran secondary, and nine returning starters overall on this side of the football. We worry about the pass rush (20 sacks LY, T9 PAC 12) and that seems to be the only thing missing from a D that should be pretty good, at least in PAC 12 terms, yo.


Punter Luke Loecher is rock solid (47.1, 42.4 net, 2nd Team PAC 12 LY) but PK Everett Hayes was inconsistent on FGs (12-18, 2-4 50+). They didn’t get much at PR or KR in 2021.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It’s pretty tough. They open with Boise St which looks like a tossup and get a tough draw from the former PAC 12 South. They have to face USC and Utah and miss the Wildcats. The Beavers get the Ducks at home to finish the campaign, and maybe, just maybe, that game will have a lot at stake.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – October 8th – at Stanford

This is a potential letdown spot after playing USC and Utah in back-to-back weeks.

Season Win Total

per 5Dimes June 11

Over – 6.5 +100

Under – 6.5 -120


Lean: Over

We made the fair number ‘7’. They have to deal with a sneaky-tough schedule but there’s a decent shot of starting 3-0 and taking it from there.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

HC Jonathan Smith has a polarizing ATS mark depending on the situation. Under Smith’s tutelage the Beavers are 6-1 as home chalk and 12-5 as road puppies <SWEET>. The bad news? They’re 5-9-1 as home dogs and 0-4 (!) as road favorites <YUCK>.


The MEGALOCKS PAC 12 DEPARTMENT was on the mark in last year’s preview when they noted the following about Oregon St….“They look decent on both sides of the football compared to recent Beaver squads and are capable of pulling an upset or two and making their first bowl game since 2013. Go Beavs!” 

Can they SHOCK the WORLD yet again? Hmm. Maybe. They should definitely be going bowling but we view them as a good notch below Oregon on paper and the schedule doesn’t do them any favors. We’ll call for seven regular season wins and a potential 8th in the postseason. Go Beavs!

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