Oregon St Beavers 2023 College Football Preview
July 15, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 11-2
Yes, guy.
The Beavers had a wonderful campaign and recorded their first 10-win season since 2006. They began the year with a pair of quality wins over Mountain West competition (Boise St, at Fresno St) and ended the regular season with a dramatic 38-34 win over the mighty Oregon Ducks. They SPANKED the Florida Gators in the Las Vegas Bowl (W 30-3) and head into the 2023 campaign on a four-game HEEETER.
Oregon St Beavers 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Beavers averaged 32 PPG LY (#6 PAC 12) and they did it with uncanny balance (196 YPG rush, 200 YPG pass). Ben Gulbranson took the majority of the snaps at QB LY (62%, 9-5 TD to INT, 5 rush TD) but he’ll be challenged by Clemson (!) transfer DJ Uiagalelei who was “mostly good” with the Tigers over a period of three seasons. The SECRET SAUCE to the offense is the rushing attack and they’ve got a devastating collection of RBs to choose from. The top-three are all back for duty and they combined for 2,023 yards and 18 TDs in 2022. Damien Martinez is one of the most talented RBs in the PAC-12 (982, 6.1, 7 TD). The WR/TE group is fairly mediocre and they’ll be without two of their top-three targets from 2022. The Beavers have the OL to make the run-based offense work as they feature four starters including stud LT Joshua Gray and over 100 career starts.
DEFENSE
WOW.
The Beavers were fantastic on defense LY and ranked #1 in the conference in both rushing defense (108 YPG) and pass efficiency defense (11-12 TD to INT, 6.4 YPA). There’s some serious reloading to do this year as they retain just five starters and one of their top-five tacklers. They’ll be stout up front vs the run as the DL is talented and experienced, and the LB unit added a few talented transfer portal specimens to help offset the loss of #1 tackler LB Omar Speights. Oregon St lost a couple of key pieces in the secondary including CB Alex Austin (NFL) and we don’t expect them to be as stingy on the back end. DC Trent Bray did a fine job LY but we expect the defense to take a small step backwards in 2023.
SPECIAL TEAMS
We’re not crazy about the kicking game as the Beavers were a mind-numbingly horrible 11-20 on FG attempts LY and they missed three XP. Could we get more of the same this season? They also have to replace All-Universe punter Luke Loecher (46.2). We’ve got some great news to help cheer everyone up tho. The Beavers feature dangerous return game weaponry in KR Silas Bolden (22, 27.2) and PR Anthony Gould who returned a pair of punts to the CRIBBY WHIZZY in 2022 whilst averaging an impossible 18.6 yards-per-return.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Things are sure to get off to a 2-0 start (at San Jose St, UC Davis) and then they’ve got a sneaky-tough home match-up with San Diego St before PAC-12 action begins. The Beavers miss USC (!) in their list of conference assignments but they finish the regular season with games against Washington (H) and Oregon (A).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing overly-spooky is noted.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 15
Over 8.5 +110
Under 8.5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
That’s probably the way to go, especially at “plus money”. The schedule is favorable and the bottom half of the PAC 12 isn’t very good. They should be able to RACK PACK AND STACK a bunch of conference victories.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Oregon St has been excellent at home the L2Y posting a record of 12-1 (USC, L 17-14) whilst boasting an impossible 8-0 ATS record as home favorites. Take note, DEGENERATE NATION.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
This is one of several dangerous teams in the PAC-12. They’re a notch below the big guns in terms of overall talent, but the schedule is reasonable, and they’ve only got one nasty road test (Oregon) to deal with from start to finish. We think their DESTINY will be determined in the second half of November and they just might be a LONGSHOT SPECIAL to sneak into the PAC-12 title game at a nice price. Go BEAVS!