Oregon St Beavers 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 23, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 2-10
ATS – 3-9
“Survive!”
<Sgt. Lincoln Osiris> <Tropic Thunder, 2008>
Oregon St has been living that mantra ever since their 10‑win high in 2022. It’s been a steady slide into the abyss — 10 wins, then 8, then 5, then a disgusting 2–10 mess last season. Their only victories came against something known as Lafayette and a three‑point escape vs Washington St, which kept them from going winless during the 2025 collapse.
Now the Beavers enter Year One of the remodeled PAC‑12, and the mission is simple: just survive and start showing a few GREEN SHOOTS of growth as they try to rebuild their identity.
Oregon St Beavers 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (FBS):
- Scoring: 18.2 PPG (#125 FBS)
- Total Offense: 349.8 YPG (#95 FBS)
- Rushing: 123.9 YPG (#107 FBS)
- Passing: 225.8 YPG (#66 FBS)
- Sacks Allowed: 26 (#81 FBS)
Job #1 for the offense is to get some functional QB play. Last year, the Beavers had a pathetic 14-13 TD to INT mark as a team, and we’re cautiously optimistic they can improve a wee bit. Maalik Murphy had a mediocre campaign (58%, 9-8), but don’t forget he showed a lot more when he was at Duke, so we won’t completely give up on him just yet. The Beavers also brought in some fresh meat from Mercer in Braden Atkinson, who’s coming off an excellent season with the Bears (3,611 yards, 34-11). Our money is on Atkinson getting the job, but it’s going to be a dogfight during fall camp.
There’s bad news emanating from the RB room as the Beavers lose their best offensive player and 1,000-yard back Anthony Hankerson. RB2 Cornell Hatcher Jr. is back in the mix, and there are several transfers who should add depth and form what Oregon State hopes is a functional committee. There’s work to do at WR/TE as nobody with more than 200 receiving yards returns from last year’s group. A litany of transfers will be given a chance, and it’s worth keeping an eye on Texas transfer WR Aaron Butler and diminutive WR Xavyion Noland (5-6, 165), who was very productive at UT Rio Grande Valley in 2025 (776 yards, 21.0 avg, 7 TD).
We’re actually fairly bullish compared to the market on the offensive line. While it doesn’t have a ton of starting experience, there’s a lot of size and upperclass seasoning to work with.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (FBS):
- Scoring Defense: 29.4 PPG (#98 FBS)
- Total Defense: 379.8 YPG (#75 FBS)
- Rush Defense: 157.4 YPG (#81 FBS)
- Pass Defense: 222.4 YPG (#73 FBS)
- Sacks: 15 (#124 FBS)
The defense wasn’t good. Let’s be clear about that. On the other hand, it wasn’t a total TIRE FIRE, apart from the complete inability to achieve PENETRATION. There are decent pieces returning for duty, and they’ve added a light dusting of useful players via the portal.
The DL looks decent on paper as they’ve got plenty of girth in the middle of the line, including the massive Jacob Schuster (6-2, 345), and it’s quite possible that DE Takari Hickle (5 TFL, 5 QBH) becomes the pass-rushing threat the defense needs. We’ll see how things go.
The Beavers have a solid duo in the middle of the defense with LBs Aiden Sullivan (#2 tackles, 7 TFL) and veteran Idaho transfer Dylan Lane leading the charge, but the secondary appears to be the softest level of the stop unit, particularly after losing leading tackler Skyler Thomas. We see the potential for the CBs to step up and play well, but we’re less convinced about the quality at safety.
New DC Mike MacIntyre should be able to coax improvement out of this defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The only thing missing last year was the CIRCUS MUSIC every time the special teams unit took the field. Exhibit A is the game vs. Sam Houston in which they outgained the Bearkats 474-157, but found a way to lose. Good times. Anyhoo, they’ve got the same punter which isn’t great, but the Beavers are trying something new at PK with UCLA transfer Jaydn Oh, who’s not exactly a proven commodity (2/5 career FG). They desperately need some pizazz in the return game as well.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Yikes. The season starts in cruel fashion as they’ve gotta deal with Houston at home and Texas Tech on the road, and they didn’t exactly luck out with their PAC‑12 flex game at the end of the year — a “non‑conference” trip to Washington St. And don’t worry, it gets worse. They also have to face Boise St and Fresno St on the road.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Colorado St (Oct 3)
This will be the second of back‑to‑back road games for the Beavers, and the INTREPID Phil Steele reminds us that Oregon St dropped both games in this scenario last year by a combined score of 73–15 (!). They also stink on the road (see Tidbits below), which only adds more fuel to the danger‑zone vibes for this matchup.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 23
Over 3.5 -160
Under 3.5 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
They should bag wins over Montana and UTEP, but after that the victories will be tough to come by. That said, four wins isn’t a high bar.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Oregon St’s famous CHAINSAW tradition actually has two parts. The chainsaw sound effect first debuted in 1998, when the athletic department leaned into the “Beavers chopping wood” identity and began blasting it after big defensive plays. Years later, the Beavers added a physical turnover chainsaw, which defensive players now rev and show to the crowd after turnovers. KAREN may not like it, but we think it’s awesome.
Oregon St is 12-41 on the road over the L10Y, just 1-9 since the start of the 2024 season.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
New head coach JaMarcus Shephard has plenty of work ahead in Corvallis, but he brings some ROLL TIDE pedigree and a relentless work ethic that should rub off on the program. There aren’t any individual units that jump off the page in terms of raw talent, yet the Beavers look solid enough across the board that we’re confident they can make real strides and improve on last year’s paltry win total. Expect better things in 2027 — and don’t forget to fire up that chainsaw.
And as the fight song fires up… “Hail to old OSU, fighting for the right!”