Oregon vs Auburn – College Football Predictions
The Game
PAC 12 and SEC big boys go head-to-head. Nice.
We’ve been looking forward to this game for months and it’s finally here. The Ducks have playoff aspirations in mind whilst the Tigers have a talented roster and a promising young QB. The pressure is on both teams. Auburn has lost at least four games every year since 2013 and HC Gus Malzahn might be on the hot seat. Oregon is carrying the torch for the much-maligned PAC 12.
Let’s go!
The Details
Auburn -3.5 Oregon (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Auburn -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Auburn 29.5 Oregon 26
The Match-Up:
Auburn offense vs Oregon defense
The wait is over. Auburn has decided to go with star recruit (and true freshman) Bo Nix at QB over the imposing physical specimen Joey Gatewood. Nix has more upside from a passing perspective and it will be APPOINTMENT TELEVISION to watch how the young man performs on the big stage in his first career start. We worry about losing their top-two WRs from last year’s squad and don’t forget that speedster Anthony Schwartz (might have a 2.88 second 40-yard dash time) may not be able to go due to a hand injury. The offensive line was a bit of a disappointment LY but they return every starter and over 100 career starts. If they can get the running game working it will help Nix enormously.
The most underrated aspect of this Oregon team coming into the season is a defense that allowed 386 yards and 25.4 PPG (both #6 in P12) in 2018. Not great, but decent. This year they might be a bit better as they boast a really good-looking stop unit from the DL to the DBs. Oregon has allowed less than 4 YPC in each of the last two seasons and it will be really fun to see if Auburn can get things rolling. The secondary matches up nicely with the inexperience that the Tigers have at WR. Keep an eye on Ducks’ super recruit DE Kayvon Thibodeaux who will look to make a mark as a true freshman.
We forecast an uneven performance from the offense and don’t expect them to get to 30 points.
Oregon offense vs Auburn defense
Yes, guy. What a match-up. Heisman candidate and future #1 NFL draft pick Justin Herbert enters his final campaign as the Ducks’ QB and will start off by facing one of the best defenses in college football. Oregon has an excellent offensive line and leads the NCAA in returning starts at the position. The Auburn DL? A top-three unit. Oregon will hopefully find some success taking advantage of the potential weakness in the Tigers’ D by exploiting the LB group. The depth at WR has been destroyed (already) by injuries and Herbert will have to be at his best to consistently move the team down the field. It’s hard to see them hitting many deep shots unless the ground game gets rolling. The RB unit is excellent but the aforementioned DL is nasty.
We expect Oregon to move the ball but they will have to earn whatever they get and rely upon a consistent and accurate Herbert to get the job done. Oh, and whomever is playing WR needs to catch the ball. The Ducks had approximately 37,000 dropped passes LY.
Expect the Ducks to get into the 20s but not into the 30s.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The game is being played at Jerry World in Arlington……Oregon is just 5-13 SU in their last 18 road or neutral site games.
Summary
It’s a very difficult game to handicap. How will the Tigers’ true freshman QB perform in his first start? Can Oregon win a big game away from Eugene? The Ducks rarely see teams that are this physical, but keep in mind that Auburn (and most SEC teams) don’t fare well when facing excellent passing QBs. Feels like a one score game either way, and a contest that might be lower scoring than many people expect.
Conclusion
Official play: Auburn TT un 29.5 sent Aug 30
Side: No LEANAGE as we approach press time.
Total: Lean to the under. (currently at 55.5/56)
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.