Penn St at Auburn – College Football Predictions
Posted September 16, 2022
The Game
Get ready for a mid-afternoon SEC vs Big Ten battle as Penn St travels to Auburn to take on the Tigers. The Nittany Lions escaped with a well-earned win over Purdue in week one (W 35-31) and easily handled Ohio in game #2. Auburn also sits at 2-0 but have played a pair of scrubs. Can Penn St bag a win in one of the toughest road venues in all of college football?
The Details
Penn St -3 Auburn (48)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Penn St -2.5
MEGALOCKS market consensus – Penn St -1.8
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Penn St 25.5 Auburn 22.5
The Match-Up:
Penn St offense vs Auburn defense
The offense was inconsistent in game one vs Purdue and they tallied less than 100Y on the ground in that one. Crafty veteran QB Sean Clifford did a great job on the winning drive but it was an “average” team effort overall. RB Nicholas Singleton got rolling vs Ohio (179 yards) but he was stoned vs Purdue (10/31 yds) and we worry about the same thing happening vs a decent Auburn run D, particularly when they have the home crowd behind them. There are definitely plays to be made thru the air vs a relatively inexperienced secondary and if Penn St wants to win this one they’ll have to get above-average production from the THROW GAME.
Auburn offense vs Penn St defense
It’s virtually certain that the Tigers’ fortunes rely upon their rushing attack to do some damage, and at a minimum, allow them to win the time of possession battle. They’re WELL STOCKED with two excellent RBs (Bigsby, Hunter) and don’t sleep on the running ability of QBs TJ Finley and Robby Ashford. The Tigers rolled for over 200Y in each of their first two games vs scrubs but this will be their first real test. Purdue was mediocre on the ground vs Penn St but they nibbled away more than we thought they could. The Auburn passing game is seriously lacking in legit weapons so they’ll need to keep it on the ground as much as possible and take the odd deep shot to loosen things up and maybe hit a big play or three.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Penn St HC James Franklin is 43-12 SU at home but just 20-18 (!) in true road games…..The weather looks great as we approach press time…..The INTREPID Marc Lawrence reminds us that Auburn is 10-2 ATS as home dogs vs undefeated visitors and Penn St is on a 2-7 SU run vs the SEC…..Look for an ORANGE OUT on Saturday afternoon as the crowd will be largely decked out in orange…..No official word on if Auburn will bring out Orange retro jerseys and/or use orange gear on the helmets….in any event it should be fun to see!
Summary
Penn St appears to be the better team on paper but Auburn is one of the few venues (ask Utah about playing in the SWAMP) that we respect as much as our old friend CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY. We project a slow moving game early on so we’ll bank on the clock going TICKY TICKY TICKY in the first half without a ton of points being scored.
Conclusion
Lean – first half under 24
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.