College Football Predictions – Purdue Boilermakers 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 9-4
Yes, guy.
Purdue looked like they were going to miss out on a bowl game before they decided to BOILER UP and win their final two games to finish the regular season at 6-6. They then proceeded to beat Arizona in the Foster Farms bowl and finish with a winning record. Year one of the Jeff Brohm era has to be considered a rousing success since it was Purdue’s first winning season since 2011 (7-6). What can they do for an encore?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
Big 10 – #8
Purdue Boilermakers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Purdue has two capable signal callers to take the reins but there are injury concerns with both men. Elijah Sindelar and David Blough combined for 27 TDs and just 11 INT in 2017, but each of them suffered a significant injury last year. Either way, we are certain that HC Brohm can get good results from the QB position. The running game looks rock solid on paper with their top-5 RBs from 2017 all returning for duty. Markell Jones and DJ Knox combined for over 1,100 yards last year and both men averaged 5+ yards per carry. The offensive line returns four starters and should lead the way for improved production (152, 4.4 LY). It’s not unthinkable to see Purdue approach 200 yards per game on the ground. The WR group loses their top two and will benefit greatly if a star can emerge this season AND if the OL can do a better job in pass protection (#11 Big 10 sacks allowed per game).
Purdue will almost certainly have their best output since 2012 when they averaged 28.7 PPG, and it would not shock us to see them exceed 30 PPG. It feels like they will be too much for the weaker defenses on their schedule but it remains to be seen how effective they can be vs the real tough Big 10 stop units.
DEFENSE
Wow. Purdue’s defense had an incredible transformation in 2017 allowing just 20.5 PPG after getting roasted for 38.3 (!) PPG in 2016. They were particularly stingy against the run (#29 FBS) yielding a mere 3.5 yards per attempt. It will be interesting to see how the defense will do this year with so many solid performers from the 2017 unit no longer with the team (4 returning starters). In particular, we worry about the run defense that was so solid a year ago but has to reload almost the entire starting DL. Last campaign’s leading tackler MLB Ja’Whaun Bentley departs and he led the team in tackles whilst compiling 11.5 TFL a season ago. Oh, and they also lose their two starting corners.
Purdue allowed 30+ PPG in five straight seasons before their excellent performance last year. We are not going to call for a return to the 30-land, but it seems reasonable to expect a TD or so worse in terms of points per game allowed.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Purdue will need to improve in the return department as they averaged a paltry 1.4 (!) yards per punt return (last Big 10) and 17.0 yards per KO return (hey, last Big 10). They should be fine at PK and P.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The year starts off with four consecutive home games and they may get Northwestern without their starting QB in the opener (stay tuned). We do think, however, that three of those four contests may be tougher than expected with Missouri and Boston College also being tough outs. Then they go on the road to Nebraska. You can make the case for a 5-0 or 4-1 start, but also 2-3. The second half of the schedule is pretty difficult. Overall, we only see a pair of layups (Eastern Michigan, at Illinois) so there may be more trouble than you think. The good news is that they avoid back-to-back road games (without a bye week in between).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Boston College (September 22). This will be their fourth straight home game and it comes before Big 10 play opens the following week (at Huskers). They better strap it on because Boston College is going to test that run defense and they are tougher than a $3 steak.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -130
Under 6 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage as we go to press. It’s not a popular opinion, but we can see Purdue being as good as last year (better on offense, worse on defense) and having it not show up in the win-loss record. As noted earlier, the schedule has a couple of early season land mines and is also very challenging over the last six games. If they get to seven wins, it seems to us that it will be because they got off to a really hot start. Possible, sure. We just need more time to think this through.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Purdue’s four conference wins last year exceeded the COMBINED TOTAL of the previous FOUR campaigns (3). Whoa, Nellie.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BOILERMAKERS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
There is no doubt this is a program on the rise. We are yuuuuge Jeff Brohm fans, but this rebuilding project may have to take a small step back before it takes another step forward. The offense will be productive but it is unclear what we are dealing with on defense with so many new starters. The schedule is also a little more difficult than it first appears.
Our Purdue prognostication (say THAT ten times fast) in 2017 missed the mark big time as we were shocked by how well the defense played. Maybe we just don’t get it? Good things are on the way for Purdue but we forecast a bit of a struggle ATS as they will be the darlings of many AND have to deal with increased expectations.
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