College Football Predictions – Rice Owls 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record –1-11
ATS – 4-8
It’s probably fair to call it a GREASE FIRE.
The Owls took down the mighty UTEP Miners in week two and then failed to win another game the rest of the season. There weren’t a lot of close calls to brag about either. Bad things happen when you score 16.3 PPG and allow 35.8 PPG whilst finishing with a (-23) turnover margin.
A new season begins with a new coaching staff. On to 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #6
Conference USA – #13
Rice Owls 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Owls cobbled together a decent rushing attack last year (187 YPG, #38 FBS) but were subject to really bad QB play (#121 passing efficiency). That made it impossible to stay competitive in pretty much every game. The starting QB gig will likely fall in the hands of Jackson Tyner (6’5, laser rocket arm) but we will keep a close watch during fall camp. The rushing attack might be in decent shape with their top-two RBs from last year’s squad back for duty (Nahshon Ellerbe, Emmanuel Esukpa; 7 rushing TDs combined LY). They also have a legit #1 WR in Aaron Cephus who averaged a WICKED 24.9 yards per reception in 2017. The offensive line is a concern as they need to learn a new system and only return a pair of starters. The new system? Think Stanford.
DEFENSE
The Owls’ defense was pretty awful last season BUT you must consider that the offense didn’t help matters much by turning the ball over 29 (!) times (#125 FBS). They got a surprising amount of PENETRATION (28 sacks) in 2017 but still made it way too easy on opposing offenses (69.7% completions, only six turnovers forced). This year they move to a 4-3 configuration and have a new DC in Brian Smith who was the DB coach at Michigan last season. They only have five returning starters but there are a few nice pieces to speak of including DT Roe Wilkins (6.5 sacks LY) and senior MLB Martin Nwakamma.
The Owls allowed 35.8 PPG last season and we can see a small improvement this year based on the new offense (more ball control, less turnovers) and better coaching (?) on defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
Check this out, yo. Rice made THREE field goals the entire season. Yup, that happened. Suffice to say, it’s hard to know what to expect in the FG department. Everyone else returns to the group so we suppose that is a good thing. The jury is still out.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – There are thirteen games on the docket so keep that in mind if you are placing some SWEET ACTION on their season win total. There are a small handful of winnable games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Hawaii (September 8th). The Owls need to travel to the LAND OF QUESTIONABLE OFFICIATING after playing a game with in-state opponent Houston.
Season Win Total
Over 3.5 +100
Under 3.5 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance for now. They play 13 (!) games and definitely have some winnable ones. Hmm. Over?
<talks to himself> <“Mega, don’t do it.”>
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Amaze the STRANGELY ATTRACTIVE FOREIGNER you met on TINDER with this trivia gem. Rice has not beaten an FBS team other than UTEP or Charlotte since half-way through the 2015 (!) season (Army).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the OWLS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
People who are in the KNOW come to MEGALOCKS for their Rice-related predictions. Last season we went out on a limb and predicted a sub-par season vs Vegas. What do we think this year?
It’s not rocket science. This is a rebuilding year and there will be some bumps in the road. Having said that, Vegas will take that into account, and it seems automatic that the Owls will be offering “value” vs the point spread on many occasions. Of course, “value” means less than a hole in a doughnut if you can’t deliver.
We recommend avoiding the Owls on most occasions but do NOT go into full FADE MODE.
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