Rice Owls 2025 College Football Preview
Posted June 26, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 6-5-1
“Bitches be crazy, yo.” <Anonymous>
Much like your psycho ex-girlfriend, some things are impossible to explain. Like how does Rice manage to defeat UTSA, Navy, and USF, but somehow finish at 4-8? The Owls had some close calls along the way but they were also blown out on several occasions. When it was all said and done it marked the 10th consecutive losing season for the Owls.
Rice Owls 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
We are pumped!
The Owls will be moving to an option-based attack under new HC Scott Abell who did some fine work at Davidson. It’s not the same offense that made Navy so effective LY (31 PPG, #39 FBS) but it’s similar in the sense that they’ll sprinkle in enough passing to keep the defense guessing. It’s unclear who’ll lead the offense at the QB position (and that is critical) but our WELL COMPENSATED RICE INSIDERS believe that they’ve got a few viable options including Chase Jenkins (2023 – 82 rush, 5.9; 13/19 pass). The RB room is very deep despite losing #1 RB Dean Connors (780, 9 TD LY) and they’ve got several guys that can slice and dice including RB Quinton Jackson and RB Taji Atkins. The offensive line performed well LY (4.5 YPC, 11 sacks) and they’ve got some experienced players coming back but you can never be sure how things will work in a completely new offense. <grabs popcorn>
DEFENSE
The Owls were sneaky-good on defense LY for a team that didn’t make a bowl game (25 PPG, #70; 335 YPG, #35) and it looks like a mixed bag heading into the 2025 campaign. First, let’s talk about the good news. The LB corps has a ton of experience and is one of the strongest in the AAC given the return of #1 tackler Ty Morris (7.5 TFL) and #3 tackler Andrew AWE, and don’t forget that Plae Wyatt is coming back from injury (#2 tackles in 2023). The DL loses a lot of key contributors but they can still rely upon stud 330-pound DT Blake Boenisch and DE/LB Michael Daley. The secondary needs to be completely rebuilt and that could spell trouble when facing the the better passing teams on the schedule. Thankfully, we don’t see too many of those on the horizon. <crosses fingers>
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things are in pretty good shape given the return of KR Quinton Jackson (26.8, TD), punter Alex Bacchetta, and the addition of PK Chase Allen (UTSA).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule is challenging, but not impossible (at Louisiana, Houston, Prairie View, UConn) and they miss Army and Tulane in AAC action. Also note that they play on the road at UTSA on October 11th and their next road game is the season finale (!!) on November 29th (USF).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UTSA (Oct 11)
This will be the Owls 3rd road game in four weeks and they’ve only covered the spread once in their last five trips to San Antonio.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 26
Over 3.5 -160
Under 3.5 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
It’s a leap of faith but we prefer banking on the upside vs a total disaster.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
As noted earlier, Rice fans have endured 10 consecutive losing seasons and the last time they won a bowl game was back in 2014 when they destroyed Fresno St in the Hawaii Bowl.
DEGENERATE NATION should be aware that the Owls are 8-14-2 ATS (36%) as a home favorite but 19-13 ATS (59%) as a home underdog over the L10Y.
Rice is playing at a disadvantage as it has one of the lowest undergraduate enrollments in the FBS, so of course we’re going to cheer for them!
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
“Is this heaven?”
“No, it’s Iowa.”
<Field of Dreams>
Rice football fans might think they’re in heaven after jettisoning HC Mike Bloomgren who went 24-52 (!) over his tenure with the Owls. We love the hire of HC Scott Abell but REALLY love the change in offensive philosophy. Teams with fewer resources than the big programs have to gain a competitive edge by other means, and what better way than to feature an unconventional (but effective) offense. We’re not expecting miracles in year one but the floor is pretty low, and the Owls could make a run for a bowl game with a medium to high amount of luck in close games.