College Football Predictions – Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 1-11
ATS – 7-5
There’s nothing like losing 11 straight games, baby.
Rutgers started out like a HOUSE ON FIRE in week one when they destroyed Texas St. And then they promptly lost the next two games by a score of 107-17. Did we mention that one of those games was vs Kansas? Must have slipped our mind. More fun trivia! Rutgers scored more than 17 points in ONE game all year. You guessed it. That was in the season opener vs the aforementioned Bobcats.
It doesn’t seem that long ago when Greg Schiano was CHOPPING WOOD at Rutgers and leading Rutgers to several successful seasons. We know that they are in the Big Ten Conference now, but hopefully they show some signs of life this year. <grabs popcorn>
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #7
Big 10 – #14
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Scarlet Knights were a barf-inducing #128 in total offense last season (266 YPG) and only managed to score 13.5 PPG which was dead last in the FBS. That’s just not cool. Highly-touted QB prospect Artur Sitkowski had GROTESQUE stats last year (49%, 4-18 TD to INT) but maybe we can chalk it up to freshman jitters? QB McClane Carter comes over from Texas Tech (!) and maybe he can be the tonic that gets the passing game rolling?
Rutgers can feel good about their 1-2 RB combo of Raheem Blackshear and Isaih Pacheco who combined for almost 1,200 yards rushing and 6 TDs a season ago. Blackshear is also coming off a campaign in which he led the team in receptions AND receiving yards (44, 367). The OL may be a bright spot as they return three very experienced starters and have allowed fewer than 20 sacks in each of the last two seasons.
It feels like this offense still has a long way to go. There is plenty of youth in the QB,RB, and WR ranks but we need to see it before we believe it. Book another poor season on offense.
DEFENSE
We have DUELING BANJOS to document. On the one hand, there is no doubt that the Scarlet Knights displayed improved performance down the stretch. They held Penn St and Michigan St to a combined 34 points in their final two games. On the other hand, they only return five starters to a defense that allowed 31.4 PPG and tallied a mere 16 sacks a season ago. Oh ya, and five of the top seven tacklers are bye bye. Only three starters return in the front seven and they appear to lack adequate size to deal with the Big Ten grind. The secondary is the strength of the defense as it features emerging star Avery Young at CB (10 PBU LY). Keep in mind that HC Chris Ash was a former DB coach and his Scarlet Knights only allowed 55.6% completions in 2018.
Our most reasonable prediction is that Rutgers holds the fort and performs at a similar level to the prior campaign (31.4 PPG).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game is in great shape with PK Justin Davidovicz (9/11 FG LY) and P Adam Korsak (40.1 net LY). Hopefully, they can find some half-decent return men.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Yippee. They begin with Massachusetts. Then things get real when they travel to Iowa. There is a five-game stretch in the middle of the season where they might be able to bag some wins (Maryland, at Indiana, Minnesota, Liberty, at Illinois) but the last three games are flat out NASTY (Ohio St, Michigan St, at Penn St).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Liberty (October 26)
This bad boy pops up between a pair of Big Ten games (Minnesota, at Illinois) and Rutgers will almost certainly be laying a bunch of points. They are not the most reliable team to be backing as a home favorite (14-20 ATS L10Y).
Season Win Total
Over 3 +105
Under 3 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
Slight lean to the ‘over’ but we aren’t crazy about DUMPSTER DIVING on low season win totals.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Rutgers is believed to have played in the first ever intercollegiate football game back in 1869. They defeated Princeton by a score of 6-4. For this reason, Rutgers is often referred to as “the birthplace of college football.”
The Scarlet Knights made nine (!) bowl appearances in a ten year span from 2005-2014. Yup, that happened.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
Will the rebuilding process ever end? This year looks like another one in which the Scarlet Knights take it on the chin. We wouldn’t be surprised to see them go on a little bit of a HEATER mid-season when the schedule is manageable, but it’s really hard to see this team getting close to bowl eligibility.
Rutgers has posted an ATS record of 15-9 over the past two seasons despite winning a mere five games. This is just another reason why FADE GUY loses his mind most weekends. It’s not as simple as just betting against the bad teams. The Scarlet Knights have a lot of issues but please note that you will usually pay a premium to bet against them.
It’s likely we will avoid Rutgers games (again) for the most part from a wagering perspective BUT will watch to see if they show signs of improvement early in the season.
Want more Rutgers football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.scarletknights.com/sports/m-footbl/rutu-m-footbl-body.html
FORUM
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/forums/rutgers-football.20/
https://247sports.com/college/rutgers/Board/Rutgers-Football-102431/
NEWS
http://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/164/rutgers-scarlet-knights
http://bleacherreport.com/rutgers-football
http://blogs.mycentraljersey.com/rutgers/
https://www.thescarletspotlight.com/
TWITTER
Hashtag – #TheHunt
Accounts to follow