San Diego St Aztecs 2016 NCAA Football Preview
SAN DIEGO ST AZTECS
Mountain West Conference – West Division
2015 Record – 11-3
ATS – 8-6
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
West Division #1
Conference #2
2015 Recap
Rocky Long has this program firing on all cylinders. Last year the Aztecs started slowly and then finished with a rush winning their final 10 games in a row. This included a win over Air Force in the Mountain West Title game followed by humiliating Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl. They used a strong running game, great defense and an NCAA-leading +22 turnover margin to bag 11 wins in 2015.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
The Aztecs appear to be set to use the same formula as last season in defense of their 2015 conference championship. An outstanding running game complemented by a safe and efficient passing game. Control the clock. Do not turn the ball over. Beat the opponent into submission.
Sophomore Christian Chapman takes over at QB as starter and all he did was lead San Diego St to victory in the MW Title Game and Hawaii Bowl in place of injured Maxwell Smith. The Aztecs return MW Offensive Player of the Year RB Donnel Pumphrey who tallied 1653 yards rushing and 17 TDs and the ground. Pumphrey also led the team in receptions (28) while picking up 3 TDs through the air. RECORD-SETTING ALERT – 318 more rushing yards will make Pumphrey the school’s all-time leader in rushing yards surpassing the great MARSHALL FAULK. The offensive line should be solid. The WR core is not called on to carry much of the load but they do return two players who averaged over 18 yards per catch (Mikah Holder 18.3, Eric Judge 19.7).
JUGGERNAUT ALERT – RB Rashaad Penny did a little bit of everything last season. 368 yards rushing (4 TD), 120 yards receiving (1 TD) and was 2nd in the NCAA in kickoff return average (33.5) while returning 3 for a TD. He was named MW Special Team Player of the Year. Penny should get additional touches this year on offense with the departure of #2 rusher Chase Price and will be a threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball on kickoffs #hecouldgoalltheway.
DEFENSE
San Diego St featured a stifling defense last season – particularly in conference play when they only allowed one team (Air Force) to score more than 17 points. They were ranked #5 in the NCAA in total defense – 7th against the run – and #10 in pass efficiency defense. All the key pieces return to this year’s unit including THREE conference First Team performers. Among those stars is MW Defensive Player of the Year CB Damontae Kazee. The Aztecs are strong at all three levels and Rocky Long’s scheme is excellent at creating havoc and confusion for opposing offenses. We expect a 3rd straight year of allowing less than 20 points per game and should have the top defense in the conference. BIG problems for the rest of the Mountain West.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It appears to be a bit of a mixed bag on special teams. Kickoff returns appear to be in excellent shape once again and they return their senior punter. On the other hand, they lose their PK who was a reliable 17-22 last season, as well as their excellent long snapper. Keep an eye on the placekicking situation because making FGs is especially important to a team that does not have an explosive offense.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
The Aztecs appear to be more than capable of making another run at a conference championship. The schedule sets up very nicely – and in fact – they have one of the easiest schedules in the NCAA. 31-9 L40 conference tilts. Whoa. Their defense has the potential to be suffocating and they will have another rock solid running game.
Overall, we give the AZTECS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season. A couple of things worry us from a wagering standpoint. San Diego St will be the hunted this year. It is always tough to repeat, particularly after a season in which you won the most games in recent history, won a conference championship and destroyed your bowl opponent. Furthermore, not only is Rocky Long 43-23 at San Diego St, but they are on a 4-year winning ATS run (30-22-1 58%), and those streaks are hard to sustain. The Aztecs are going to be asked to cover several large numbers this season including several away from home and that is not the recipe for a top-notch year ATS.
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https://twitter.com/SchmidtSDSU (@SchmidtSDSU) Mike Schmidt