College Football Predictions – San Diego St Aztecs 2019 College Football Preview
Record – 7-6
ATS – 3-9
The Aztecs lost the season opener at Stanford but then proceeded to rattle off six consecutive wins, and that streak included a victory over Boise St on their famed SMURF TURF. Things then took an unfortunate turn to TANK TOWN as they lost their final three games of the regular season and got SMOKED by OHIO in the Frisco Bowl by a score of 27-0.
Let’s take a look and see if San Diego St is capable of getting back to their usual place near the top of the Mountain West pecking order.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #1
Mountain West – #2
San Diego St Aztecs 2019 Outlook
San Diego St ranked in the bottom third of the conference in total offense last season (349 YPG) and only managed to score 20.6 PPG (DEAD LAST MW). It’s quite impressive that they managed to win seven games with that kind of output.
The plan is to operate out of a spread look this season as opposed to their familiar pro-style attack. It remains to be seen how effective it will be, but the coaches believe that QB Ryan Agnew will be more effective given this change. Agnew was inconsistent a season ago (52%, 10-6 TD to INT) and will have to operate with a new WR group this coming season. Their top-two WRs are gone including Kahale Warring who is off to the NFL (Texans) and their #3 man in terms of receiving yards (Tim Wilson Jr) decided to retire due to a foot injury. The RB group is loaded with star Juwan Washington back for one more season (999, 10 TD LY) and there is plenty of depth behind him. The OL has good size and an excellent center in Keith Ismael (1st Team MW LY). They should be able to get the ground attack back to normal Aztec standards (162 YPG LY, 230+ three previous seasons).
This still appears to be one of the weaker offenses in the conference. It’s hard to get too excited about the THROW GAME but they should be able to run the ball effectively on almost anyone.
The Aztecs have been outstanding on defense for five consecutive seasons finishing near the top of the conference in total defense on each occasion (#3, #1, #1, #1, #1). Things are shaping up nicely for the upcoming campaign but they will have to play with a brand new starting defensive line. They always seem to cobble together a solid group and new DL coach Brady Hoke should be a bonus. The LB and DB units are going to be nasty. MLB Kyahva Tezino is a star (1st Team MW LY) and he was a monster a season ago leading the team in tackles, TFL and QBH (17) (!). The secondary is loaded with CB Darren Hall and a pair of talented safeties including 2nd Team MW performer Tariq Thompson.
The defense was noticeably worse in the second half of the 2018 season so it will be interesting to see how they come out of the gates. We anticipate another top-three finish in scoring defense, but keep an eye on the performance of the DL early in the season.
It looks like a mixed bag, although the Aztecs almost always have solid special teams. Punter Brandon Heicklen is a good one but they will be introducing a new PK. Juwan Washington is a very dangerous KR.
Overall – It looks favorable. The out-of-conference slate doesn’t have any monsters on it, although a road game at UCLA is not a gimme, nor is the home date with BYU. They get their prime competitor (on paper) in the division at home on November 15 when they tackle Fresno St.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing significant to note.
Season Win Total
Over 8 +120
Under 8 -140
Lean to the ‘over’ as we approach press time. The Aztecs booked three-consecutive double-digit win seasons before last season’s mini-collapse.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
Stop us if you have heard this before. It looks like they may struggle on offense and rely upon a great defense to win games. The jury is still out on QB Ryan Agnew but the rushing attack will give people fits. You have to assume that the defense will be a rock until proven otherwise. It’s likely that the division will be decided late in the year when they tackle the Bulldogs and Rainbow Warriors. <grabs popcorn>
The Aztecs were a GREASE FIRE last season ATS and finished with a record of 3-10 vs the number. It’s important to remember, however, that the last time San Diego St had a losing record vs Vegas was back in 2011 (!). We are going to start out with a neutral ATS view and recommend using caution when they are home chalk (2-10 L12 in that role).
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