College Football Predictions – San Diego St Aztecs 2020 College Football Preview
July 2020
OCTOBER 2020 – Schedule notes updated.
2019 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 8-5
The Aztecs slugged their way through the season with a pitiful offense and DEVASTATING defense and ended up with their fourth double-digit winning campaign in five years. That’s impressive. They dropped a couple of home games that they should have won (Utah St, Nevada) but capped the season off in style with a blowout win over Central Michigan in the New Mexico Bowl.
Former HC Rocky Long is no longer patrolling the sidelines and it’s time for ROUND TWO of the Brady Hoke experience. Let’s go!
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – TBD
Mountain West – TBD
San Diego St Aztecs 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
YIKES.
The Aztecs were tough to watch on offense last year and finished the campaign ranked dead last in the conference in both scoring offense (21.2 PPG) and total offense (343 YPG). Their formerly lethal rushing attack struggled like it did in 2018 and that was a bit of a shocker. Their leading rusher had just 500 (!) yards on the ground and QB Ryan Agnew was inconsistent in the THROW GAME. There are lots of new faces this year and it starts under center where sophomore Carson Baker appears to be the man after backing up Agnew a season ago. It’s unclear whether or not the Aztecs have a true 1,000-yard RB as is their usual custom, so it may be a committee approach this year. There were just a pair of wide receivers on the 2019 squad that had more than 200 (!) receiving yards and both of those men return at WR. Kobe Smith and Jesse Matthews combined to catch 106 balls for over 1,300 yards LY. Tight end Daniel Bellinger averaged 13.4 YPC LY and caught 3 TD passes. In an ideal world they’ll be able to have more success stretching the field (#10 MW YPA LY) to help open up the run game. Three starters return to the offensive line and they’ll have a big say in how much improvement San Diego St can make on this side of the ball.
They can’t possibly be any worse than a season ago and we’ll call for moderate improvement.
DEFENSE
WHOA NELLIE. That was impressive. San Diego St played defense at an incredibly high level LY and allowed a minuscule 12.7 PPG (!) which ranked #2 in all of college football, and just 1/10 of a point behind the Georgia Bulldogs. They were spectacular vs the run (#2 FBS, 75 YPG) and the pass (#1 MW pass efficiency D, 10-18 TD to INT). Oh, and they tied for 2nd in the MW in sacks (31). Whew. Ok, so what about this year? Well, they return seven starters on this side of the football, and still have some fine talent to get things done. The DL is the best in the conference and boasts a PAIR of stars in Cameron Thomas and Keshawn Banks who combined for 10 sacks and 22.5 TFL LY. The LB group looks solid but they’ll miss Kyahva Tezino who led the team in tackles in each of the past two campaigns. San Diego St allowed just 10 TD passes (!) LY and return three starters to a secondary that is easily one of the best in the Mountain West.
This has the look of another excellent Aztec stop unit.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Matt Araiza was rock solid LY (28/28 XP, 22/26 FG) and is one of the premier FG kickers in the conference. It appears as though he will take over the punting duties given the departure of Brandon Heicklen. They’ll be fine on PR and KR given the athletes on board.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Aztecs draw well out of the Mountain division (Utah St, Colorado St) but have a tough road game at BYU on December 12th. They should be able to get off to a good start (UNLV, at Utah St, SJ St).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at BYU (December 12)
It’s a non-conference tilt at the end of the regular season, and BYU is a tough cookie.
Season Win Total
TBD
MEGALOCKS says:
TBD
MEGAmazing Tidbit
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
Stop us if you have heard this before, but it appears as though the Aztecs will have a fantastic defense and a plodding offense. Having said that, there’s upside to be had if their new QB can provide a bit of spark in the passing game, and the rushing attack resembles something closer to what we are used to seeing from these guys. The season finale at home vs Hawaii just might be for all the West division marbles.
Want more Aztecs Football ?
WEBSITE
https://goaztecs.com/sports/football
FORUM
http://aztecmesa.proboards.com/board/2/aztec-sports-conference-discussions
http://aztecsfight.com/Forum-Aztec-Football
NEWS
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/21/san-diego-state-aztecs
TWITTER
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