San Diego St Aztecs 2023 College Football Preview
June 30, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 5-8
The Aztecs fumbled their way to a mediocre 7-6 season just one year after winning 12 (!) games. Losses to Boise St (blowout) and Fresno St (close shave) put them behind the 8-BALL and they finished the regular season a pair of games behind the Bulldogs in the divisional race. They were upset by a hungry MTSU team in the Hawaii Bowl (L 25-23) and roll into 2023 on a bit of a downward trajectory.
San Diego St Aztecs 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
It was tough to watch the Aztecs attempt to move the ball LY and they ended the season ranked #73 in rushing offense and #117 thru the air. QB Jaylen Mayden showed promise at times but needs to develop more consistency for the offense to thrive (12-10 TD to INT, 3 rush TD LY). We’re not thrilled with the targets that Mayden has to work with as they lost they’re top-two WRs and don’t appear to have a legit #1 option on the depth chart. The good news is that TE Mark Redman is one of the best pass-catching TEs in the Mountain West (233, 2 TD LY). There are a small handful of good options to use at RB and it’ll probably be a committee-style approach with the rushing attack. They’ve got three returning starters and decent size up front but will definitely miss former center Alama Uluave who did outstanding work with the Aztecs. We’re not pumped about the offense but maybe new OC Ryan Lindley can work some magic?
DEFENSE
The Aztecs were their usual stingy selves LY and did a good job vs the run (114 YPG, #20 FBS) as well as the pass (#51 pass efficiency D, 21-13 TD to INT). They’ve got some retooling to do this season as they’ll be without LY’s top-three tacklers including #1 sack man Jonah Tavai (10.5 sacks, 14 QBH). There’s some concern up front as they need to reload the starting group but they did well to add DT Samuela Tuihalamaka from Oklahoma St. They’re set at LB with the return of a pair of starters and note the SPICY addition of Cody Moon who they poached from New Mexico (#1 tackler LY, 4.5 sacks). Almost everyone of consequence returns in the secondary and it’s loaded with talent. Yup, they’ll have one of the better defenses (again) in the conference with a shot to be REALLY good if they can find an effective pass rusher or two.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game will be excellent thanks to the work of the devastating Jack Browning who nailed 20-25 FG attempts LY and also dominated as a punter (46.1, 1st Team MW). It’s not all candy and roses tho as the Aztecs must replace dangerous return specialist Jordan Byrd who had a pair of TDs in 2022 (PR,KR).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – They should get off to a good start with home games vs Ohio and Idaho St. The next two games are nasty as they host UCLA and then travel to face the JUGGERNAUT Oregon St Beavers. They play all three other BIG ‘UNS in the Mountain West and things will get real in a hurry. Their first two conference games are against Boise St (H) and Air Force (A).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Oregon St (Sept 16)
Corvallis is one of the most difficult places to play in all of college football and this game pops up right before the yuuuge home match-up with Boise St.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 30
Over 6.5 -130
Under 6.5 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
They’ve got a challenging set of assignments ahead of them but seven wins seems very realistic.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
San Diego St has finished with a winning record in 12 of the last 13 seasons (!). The lone exception came during the 2020 PLANDEMIC ** fiasco in which they went 4-4.
** trust the “science”, yo
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
San Diego St is a major player in the Mountain West yet again. The offense appears to lack explosiveness so they’ll have to go with a lot of SWEET GROUND AND POUND ACTION. The defense and special teams are excellent and that’ll make them a tough out every week. Legit contender to play for all the Mountain West marbles in early December. Let’s gooo!