College Football Predictions – San Jose St Spartans 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 1-11
ATS – 7-5
Not good.
The Spartans only managed to win one game all season (UNLV) and somehow won fewer games than they did in 2017 (2). The good news is that they were pretty competitive in a few tough spots losing to Oregon (!) on the road by 13 points, at the Aztecs by a FG and don’t forget that Hawaii needed FIVE OT to get rid of the pesky Spartans.
Let’s kick back and figure out if San Jose St has any shot of being competitive in 2019.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #6
Mountain West – #12
San Jose St Spartans 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
Hmm. Where should we start?
The Spartans should be fine at QB with senior Josh Love leading the way. The numbers weren’t great last year (1,963, 14-9 TD to INT, 56%) but it’s not like he had a ton of support at the skill positions and on the offensive line. Speaking of the OL, the Spartans were DEAD LAST in the FBS in rushing offense a season ago averaging a DESPICABLE 62 YPG on the ground. Leading rusher Tyler Nevens (554, 4.1, 4 TD) is back and the depth behind him looks better than last year. The Spartans will miss their star TE Josh Oliver who was drafted in the 3rd (!) round of the NFL draft. #1 WR Tre Walker is back for duty (714, 18.3, 5 TD) but it’s unclear what the depth behind him will be able to produce. The best news we have to report is that the offensive line brings back four starters and their performance can’t possibly be any worse than what we witnessed in 2018. AMIRITE?
The Spartans should be able to improve a bit from a scoring perspective (21.3 PPG LY) but they will still struggle to move the ball consistently.
DEFENSE
San Jose St has allowed almost 500 YPG in each of the past two seasons (495, 499) but at least they showed some improvement stopping the run a season ago (74 YPG improvement). There is reason for a touch of optimism this year as the Spartans bring back six starters and four of their top-five leading tacklers. The strength of the defense appears to be a linebacker corps that returns three starters including MLB Ethan Aguayo who led the Spartans in stops LY. The secondary has a pair of experienced safeties which can’t be a bad thing. Our primary concern is the lack of PENETRATION achieved recently as they have only managed to tally 24 (!) sacks in TOTAL over the past two campaigns.
The Spartans should be able to take a small step forward in terms of points allowed (36.6 PPG LY) but they will still have trouble slowing down the better offenses on their schedule.
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
San Jose St sported a decent special teams group last year but we have grave concerns about their future prospects. It’s pretty much a total reload situation as they lose their P and PK with the departure of Bryce Crawford. They also need to find new primary return men.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – There are a small handful of winnable games. The toughest stretch of the season will come at close to the mid-point of the year when they must deal with four road games in six weeks.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing noteworthy.
Season Win Total
Over 2.5 -185
Under 2.5 +145
MEGALOCKS says:
Three wins is not out of the question, but that looks like the right number. Gonna take a pass.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The last time the Spartans won an outright conference title was back in 1990 when they took down the Big West. They shared the honor with Fresno St the following year.
San Jose St first fielded a football team in 1893 when the school was called the California State Normal School.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
Well, it looks like another tough year ahead for the Spartans. They promise to be better on both sides of the football but we aren’t sure that will translate into many more wins. There is an opportunity to get some confidence early in the season as they start off with home games against Northern Colorado and Tulsa.
We have a neutral view from an ATS perspective. San Jose St has only won three games over the past two years BUT have still managed to cobble together a .500 mark vs Vegas. People don’t line up to bet on San Jose St so you usually get a bit of value when calling out their name at the windows.
Spartan Up!
Want more San Jose St Football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.sjsuspartans.com/sports/m-footbl/sjsu-m-footbl-body.html
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/san-jose-state/Board/Football-102442/
NEWS
http://www.mercurynews.com/tag/san-jose-state-spartans/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/23/san-jose-state-spartans
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/san-jose-st-spartans
TWITTER
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