San Jose St Spartans 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 19, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 4-8
“What was that?”
<Marty McFly> <Back to the Future, 1985>
The Spartans came into the season feeling pretty confident about their chances in the Mountain West, and frankly, so did we. Unfortunately, the season started with a whimper, getting upset at home by Central Michigan, and they just never found their footing. There were a few close calls around the midpoint of the campaign, but things got really ugly in November as the wheels came off.
So now the question becomes: Can COACH KEN turn things around in 2026, or was last year a sign that the program is drifting into the danger zone?
San Jose St Spartans 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Mountain West):
- Scoring: 21.4 PPG (#9 Mountain West)
- Total Offense: 402.3 YPG (#5 Mountain West)
- Rushing: 119.7 YPG (#10 Mountain West)
- Passing: 282.6 YPG (#2 Mountain West)
- Sacks Allowed: 13 (#1 Mountain West)
The Spartans threw for a ton of yards last season, but they made way too many mistakes (17–17 TD to INT) and never quite found the occasional complementary rushing attack needed to keep defenses honest.
They’ll be rolling with FRESH MEAT at QB this year, as Hawaii transfer Luke Weaver (60%, 6–3 TD to INT) battles true freshman Daniel Rolovich, a 6‑4, 205‑pound specimen with an arm that qualifies as a HOSE. The top two RBs depart, and the room looks far from spectacular. Holdover Jabari Bates (5‑7, 179) will get plenty of work, but he doesn’t have the frame to carry a full load. Maybe someone pops in fall camp, but we’re not holding our breath.
There is absolute CARNAGE in the WR room. They lose their top three options, including star WR Danny Scudero (1,297 yards, 10 TD), and that trio combined for 2,700+ yards and 15 TDs in 2025. They’ll need transfer bodies to step up and dominate, but the system is very WR‑friendly. Two names to watch: former 4‑star Anthony Ivey (Penn State!) and Malachi Riley, who was lost to injury early last season.
One thing San Jose State did nail last year was pass protection — just 13 sacks allowed (#9 FBS), following a ridiculous 12 sacks allowed in 2024. That’s not a fluke. The Spartans’ system keeps the QB clean, and with two starters returning plus some Power 4 transfers added to the mix, we still have faith the Spartans will protect the passer at a high level. The SJSU offensive line should remain a strength even with the roster churn.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Mountain West):
- Scoring: 32.5 PPG (#12 Mountain West, dead last)
- Total Defense: 403.2 YPG (#8 Mountain West)
- Rushing Defense: 159.6 YPG (#6 Mountain West)
- Passing Defense: 245.3 YPG (#10 Mountain West)
- Sacks: 17 (#10 Mountain West)
The defense has gotten consistently more porous over the last three seasons, sliding from allowing 22 PPG in 2022 to 32 PPG in 2025. And the PENETRATION issues were real last year — they simply couldn’t generate heat on opposing QBs. The top nine tacklers depart, but honestly… maybe that’s not the worst thing.
The DL is the first place to watch. They lose all three starters, and they’ll need DE Justin Stearns (2.5 TFL) and Arizona State transfer Ian Shewell to exceed expectations. There aren’t any obvious game‑wreckers, and the size profile across the unit is underwhelming. The LB corps might be fine with holdover Ethan Powell and Weber State transfer Aizik Mahuka leading the charge. It doesn’t look like a great group on paper, but it’s not a total disaster either. The secondary needs help after allowing 66% completions and an 18–7 TD to INT mark. They’ve added some interesting pieces, including senior safety Brian Dukes, a steady producer at Cal Poly, and San Diego St transfer CB Isaiah Buxton.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Special teams have been a straight‑up HORROR SHOW the last two seasons (#125, #126 per Phil Steele), and whilst the return game still looks sketchy, the kicking situation looks really good. Punter Trent Carrizosa is one of the best in the conference (41.3 net LY), and they may finally have a PK capable of making FGs. Trajan Sinatra did fine work at Idaho St last year (18/22 FG) and is a YUUUGE upgrade.
And hey — with a name like Sinatra, maybe this is the year the Spartans finally “do it their way” on special teams instead of sending fans straight to the bar.
Schedule Analysis
Overall — San Jose St plays 13 (!) games this year thanks to the quirky “Hawaii rule,” so the regular‑season finale vs North Dakota will actually be a non‑conference affair. And honestly? Four of the five out‑of‑conference assignments are very winnable, which is exactly what they’ll need after getting massacred by USC on August 29. The Mountain West slate is tough in the sense that three of their first four league games are on the road, but the good news is they draw New Mexico and UNLV at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Eastern Michigan (Sept 4)
The Spartans have to travel across the country on short rest after getting absolutely slaughtered by USC, and that’s a nasty turnaround no matter how you slice it. Alert readers of our season previews will know that we think the Eagles will be a feisty MAC squad, and don’t forget — San Jose State couldn’t get past Central Michigan at home last season.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 19
Over 5.5 +135
Under 5.5 -175
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
This looks like a high‑variance team, making the win total extremely tough to pin down. And the 13‑game schedule adds another layer of calculus we’re simply not prepared to handle without a NASA supercomputer.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
San Jose St traces its roots to 1857, when it was founded as the Minns’ Evening Normal School — California’s FIRST public institution of higher learning. It’s crazy to think about, but that makes the university older than the communist hags on The View.
The Ira F. Brilliant Center for Beethoven Studies at SJSU houses the most extensive Beethoven archive anywhere outside Europe. Only at SJSU can you study blitz pickups and Beethoven’s Ninth before lunch, yo.
San Jose St is 14-42 in away games over the L10Y.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Well, that was a rough ride last year for the Spartans, and whilst they dropped a bunch of close games, that’s what you get sometimes when you’re rolling with a one‑dimensional offense and a mediocre stop unit. This season brings more questions than answers, and unless a few transfers hit BIGLY, it could be another long year in the Valley for the Spartan faithful.
Sure, they could surprise if the THROW GAME really clicks, but we think they’ll struggle to earn a bowl bid in the new‑look Mountain West.
Hail, Spartans, Hail!