SMU at Texas St – College Football Predictions
The Game
Opening week in San Marcos, baby. Let’s do this!
The Mustangs are coming off their first 10-win season since 1984 (!) and they were legit contenders for a NY6 bowl game until they fell to Memphis late in the year. The Bobcats struggled as expected in the first year of the Jake Spavital era and have only managed to bag ten wins over the past four campaigns. Can they hang with the explosive Mustangs?
The Details
SMU -22 Texas St (70)
MEGALOCKS LINE – SMU -18
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: SMU 46 Texas St 24
The Match-Up:
SMU offense vs Texas St defense
SMU moved like a TREMENDOUS machine LY and were the #9 total offense in the FBS (#43 rush, #13 pass). QB Shane Buechele is one of the best passers in college football and should be able to do damage in the THROW GAME, even without star WR James Proche who took his talents to the NFL. They are still loaded at WR and TE and note that they were #2 in the AAC in 20+ yard completions in 2019. The yuuuuuge concern on offense is the loss of #1 RB Xavier Jones who booked an impossible 23 rushing TDs in his 1,200-yard rushing campaign a season ago. TJ McDaniel has potential (5.8 YPC LY) and he’ll be running behind a talented offensive line that returns four starters. Texas St struggled on defense LY, particularly vs the run where they allowed 218 YPG (#120 FBS). That was with an experienced defense, and this year they only return four starters and lose their top-three tacklers. PENETRATION? They only managed to tally 13 (!) sacks in 12 games LY (#125 FBS).
The implied team total of 46 points looks about right.
Texas St offense vs SMU defense
The Bobcats were tough to watch on offense last year as they couldn’t get the ground game going (#127 FBS) and were horribly inconsistent in the THROW GAME (17-20 TD to INT ratio as a team). There’s some good news heading into the season with the NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN taking over the QB duties. Brady McBride transferred from Memphis and sat out LY. Reports from practice are positive. It’s still unclear what they have at RB but they do return three of their top-four WRs from the 2019 squad. Spavital takes over the play-calling duties and maybe that will have a positive impact? SMU is no prize on defense (#107 FBS total D LY) and they are very inexperienced on the DL heading into 2020. They also lose their top-three (!) sack producers who combined for a whopping 28 of those bad boys LY. There are some talented players at LB and in the secondary and it’ll be interesting to see how they defend the pass.
Texas St should have some success and there is definitely upside at QB.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
TREND GUY will note that the Bobcats are just 11-16 ATS as a home doggie L10Y…..SMU is 6-9 ATS as road chalk over that time horizon and 1-4 ATS under the watch of Sonny Dykes…..The Mustangs handled Texas St LY by a score of 47-17 when they met up in Dallas…..SMU has TCU on deck…..Early weather forecast looks promising….warm and calm with chance of thunderstorms….Will monitor the situation as always.
Summary
That’s lot of lumber to lay in week one, but there’s no doubt that the Mustangs will be able to put up a lot of points. We think the Bobcats will benefit from improved QB play this year but that defense keeps us up at night. Line looks a bit high but there are a lot of unknowns when thinking about backing the home team.
Conclusion
Slight lean: Texas St +22 (if you really need to get down on this game, maybe wait to close to kickoff and see if you can get another point or so. Can’t see it going below the key number of ’21’ unless there is late breaking personnel news.)
Total: No leanage.
Team totals: No leanage.
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you need action. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need some sweet action and want advice.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in that market.