College Football Predictions – SMU Mustangs 2020 College Football Preview
August 22, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 7-5-1
The Mustangs started out on SUPAH HOT FIRE winning their first eight games. That was very impressive when you consider they only won five games in 2018. The balloon was popped after losing a tough one to Memphis (L 54-48) and they ended up dropping three of their final five contests. They were a no-show in the Boca Raton Bowl vs Florida Atlantic (L 52-28) but still posted their first double-digit winning season since 1984 (!).
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
American Athletic Conference – #6
<Note. No divisions this year. One 11-team conference.>
SMU Mustangs 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Mustangs moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last year and boasted one of the most potent offenses in college football (#7 FBS scoring offense, #9 total offense). They lose some key pieces heading into 2020 but still have the STRAW THAT STIRS THE DRINK in QB Shane Buechele who threw for over 3,900 yards and 34 TD passes LY. The Mustangs will miss leading WR James Proche (Ravens) who caught 111 (!!) balls LY but do return WR Reggie Roberson (803, 18.7, 6 TD LY) and their excellent TE Kylen Granson (721, 16.8, 9 TD LY). Note that Roberson did a LOT of damage in just 8 (!) games a season ago. The THROW GAME should be just fine. The big concern is the loss of a ton of production at RB. Xavier Jones rushed for over 1,200 yards LY whilst compiling an impossible 23 rushing TDs. #2 RB Ke’Mon Freeman also departs (517, 5 TD). TJ McDaniel could end up being a legit #1 RB but there’s always a bit of concern heading into a season without a proven #1 back. Whomever ends up getting carries at RB will be running behind an experienced offensive line that returns four starters.
These guys are still gonna be potent but probably down a notch from the prior year. Note that ace offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee is now with YOUR Miami Hurricanes.
DEFENSE
RUH ROH.
SMU struggled mightily on defense a season ago (#109 FBS scoring D, #107 total defense) and allowed the most TD passes in the conference (34). This year the Mustangs lose their top-three sack producers who combined for a whopping 28 (!) of those bad boys and bring back just one starter to the defensive line. The good news is that the LB group features a trio of seniors including leading tackler Richard McBryde, and the secondary is solid at corner. SMU tallied an amazing 51 (!!) sacks (#T2 FBS) and still finished poorly in most defensive categories. What happens when you lose so much proven PENETRATION ability and talent up front? They have added a few interesting Power 5 transfers to the mix so it’s not impossible to see them improve a bit.
They’ve allowed 33+ PPG every year since 2013 and it’s hard to see them breaking that streak this season.
SPECIAL TEAMS
“The extra point attempt is up…….ANNNNDDDDDDD it misses by a trailer-length.”
“Hard to see that happen yet again, Chuck.”
SMU was a mess at PK last year as they missed 7 (!) extra points and didn’t make a field goal over 40 yards (to be fair, zero attempts). It’s unclear who will bag the starting gig. They also need to break in a new punter and suffer a yuuuuuge loss in KR CJ Sanders who had 2 KR TD LY (28.8, #6 FBS).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – 12 (!) games are booked! WOO HOO. The non-conference slate looks very manageable. They get SF Austin, Texas St (A), and North Texas (A) on the docket and that should be three wins. The road visit to TCU might not be fun, but note their starting QB is out indefinitely. The AAC schedule gets HOT AND HEAVY right away as they face the Tigers and Bearcats in two of their first three conference affairs. The schedule in November is easier and they get almost all of their difficult AAC tilts at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at East Carolina (November 28th)
This will be their 3rd road game in four weeks and the Pirates can SCORE THE FOOTBALL. If the Mustangs conference dreams are crushed at this point we definitely won’t be backing them ATS.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
We think the opener will be in the vicinity of Over 8 -110, Under 8 -110.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The Mustangs had an amazing stretch between 1981 and 1984 in which they posted a record of 41-5-1 (!) and booked four consecutive double-digit winning seasons. In 1982, they finished with a mark of 11-0-1, won the Cotton Bowl, and finished #2 in the AP poll.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
There’s no doubt these guys are gonna be potent on offense but it’s hard to take them seriously as major contenders in the AAC with a defense that looks really weak on paper. The schedule helps them out as they have most of their important games at home. We expect a lot of high-scoring affairs and who knows what happens if they beat Memphis on October 1st?
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