South Alabama at Southern Miss – College Football Predictions
The Game
Opening night. Let’s goooooo!
Southern Miss comes limping into this game on a three-game losing skid (combined score 92-40) and without several key players that have opted out of the 2020 season. South Alabama enters year three of the Steve Campbell era and have only won a total of five games over the past two seasons. Are they ready for a breakthrough? Can it start on the road this week?
The Details
Southern Miss -15 South Alabama (53.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Southern Miss -12.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Southern Miss 34.25 South Alabama 19.25
The Match-Up:
Southern Miss offense vs South Alabama defense
The Golden Eagles were a disappointment on offense last season and finished the year #63 in the FBS in total offense and a horrid #121 (!) in rushing offense. They scored just 26.6 PPG and haven’t averaged 30+ since 2016. Senior QB Jack Abraham is back for his final season and he was inconsistent LY (19-15 TD to INT) despite chucking for over 3,400 yards. Two of his top-three WRs have HIT THE ROAD but Tim Jones caught 73 balls LY and they add a dangerous TE via transfer from Arkansas (Grayson Gunter). The depth in the RB room was bit by the OPT-OUT BUG but there’s still talent on board including Kevin Perkins who led the team in rushing LY (547, 5.3). They should be strong up front with four returning starters but we can’t help reflect upon the poor rushing performance in 2019. The pass pro was just fine (23 sacks allowed in 438 attempts). South Alabama was mid-pack in the Sun Belt in both run defense and pass efficiency D a season ago and had a tough time getting PENETRATION (17 sacks, 2nd last Sun Belt). It’s worth noting that they only allowed 40+ on one occasion LY (Memphis, 41) and that they return 7 starters on defense. They also boast one of the stronger LB units in the Sun Belt.
We don’t think Southern Miss will put up yuuuuge numbers in this contest but they’ll definitely have their share of success.
South Alabama offense vs Southern Miss defense
The Jags struggled on offense (again) LY and finished the campaign with the #113 total offense in the FBS (#54 rushing, #119 passing). The good news is that they finished the year strong with Desmond Trotter under center (28,27,15,34 points L4G) and he’s back for his sophomore campaign. Improvement should be expected. The majority of the WR corps is back for action and they won’t be an easy group to handle. The bad news is the departure of 1,000-yard rusher (#3 all-time Jags) Tra Minter who also caught 32 balls out of the backfield LY. It’s unclear if they have a legit #1 option in the RB room as we approach press time. We expect a committee approach in week one. Southern Miss has played some decent defense over the past five years but they received some bad news this summer when two of their best defensive players decided to opt out of the 2020 campaign. Their most accomplished DE Jacques Turner and projected starting MLB Racheem Boothe are both gone, and that leaves them with just four returning starters. They’ll be relying on a number of junior college transfers to do the job. Time will tell if that’ll work out. The best news on defense is that the secondary is definitely the strength of the stop unit and that’s a good match-up vs the talented South Alabama receivers. They booked 39 sacks LY but have lost a lot of firepower in terms of getting after the QB.
The implied team total looks about right although we think there’s some nice upside potential.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Southern Miss is 8-11-1 ATS as home chalk under HC Jay Hopson…..South Alabama is 13-12 ATS under HC Steve Campbell (5-7 as road dog)…..Weather should be very warm with calm winds and no rain….We’ll keep track of the situation but it looks like fine football weather…..Plandemic safety measures will limit the stadium to 25% capacity…..Southern Miss lost their DEVASTATING return man Jaylond Adams who booked 3 return TDs LY……Opt out, yo.
Summary
This is absolutely a game that Southern Miss should win but they seem to be getting a bit too much respect in the betting markets given the personnel losses over the summer. It’s never easy to call out ‘South Alabama’ at the betting windows but they just might be a bit of a SURPRISE PACKAGE. We’re not on it yet, but it’s “dog or pass” in our view from an ATS perspective.
Conclusion
Lean: South Alabama +15
Lean: Over 53.5
Lean: South Alabama TT over 19.5 (implied; waiting for number)
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you need action. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need some sweet action and want advice.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in that market.