College Football Predictions – South Alabama Jaguars 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 6-6
The Jaguars witnessed their win total drop for the second consecutive year as they finished up with a dismal record of 3-9. Their victories came vs some fairly rotten competition (Texas St, Alabama St, Coastal Carolina) BUT we do give them credit for not packing it in and fighting to the bitter end. They lost to division champs Louisiana on the road by just ten points and then beat the Chanticleers in the season finale.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #5
Sun Belt – #10
South Alabama Jaguars 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Jags took a moderate step forward last season (19.8 to 24.2 PPG) but were still ranked #8 in scoring offense in the Sun Belt. Things might be dicey this year as the QB situation appears at best ‘uncertain’, and at worst, ‘bleak’. Evan Orth and Cole Garvin are both no longer with the program and it will be up to either sophomore Cephus Johnson (19 attempts LY), JC transfer Tylan Morton or another youngster to lead the way. Johnson appears to be the leader in the clubhouse after having a good spring. #1 RB Tra Minter (801 yards rushing, 23 receptions) leads a decent RB group but there appears to be a BLACK HOLE at WR where the only proven option returning for duty is Kawaan Baker (33, 494, 4 TD LY). Baker also had an impressive 9 (!) rushing scores in 2018. The OL returns four starters and needs to do a better job getting the rushing attack going as they only managed to rush for 3.7 YPC LY (dead last Sun Belt).
We would like to be optimistic but our best guess is that last year’s production (24.2 PPG) is likely the high-water mark for the offense in 2019.
DEFENSE
WHAT IN THE SAM HILL was that?
South Alabama’s defense took an unfortunate turn to CRAPPY TOWN last season and yielded 38.8 PPG (#123 FBS) just a year after averaging a perfectly respectable 26.5 PPG. Things are going to improve this year if for no other reason than the defensive line looks good. DE Tyree Turner is a force who bagged 10 TFL last year and 3 QBH whilst achieving 2nd Team Sun Belt accolades. Depth in the unit looks good and they have nice size. The LB and DB groups are more of a concern, especially given that there are just a pair of starters returning to the mix, and don’t forget that the Jags were pretty awful vs the pass a season ago (64.7% completions, 26-12 TD to INT). South Alabama will also have to get more pressure on the QB (20 sacks LY, #7 Sun Belt) if they want to make meaningful strides.
They won’t give up 39 PPG this year but this still feels like one of the weakest defenses in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Jags move on without their solid P and PK combo, but at least the stellar Tra Minter is back to return kickoffs and punts.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – There are some nasty ones in there (at CORN, Memphis, at UAB) but there are some winnable games on the docket as well.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UAB (September 21)
This game follows a sure-to-be-butt-kicking at the hands of Memphis and precedes the start of conference action (ULM). The Jags have proven to be a bad bet on the road.
Season Win Total
Over 2.5 -120
Under 2.5 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
You know our policy on DUMPSTER DIVING with season win totals. We almost always avoid the really low numbers like this one.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
This is probably going to be a long season. The Sun Belt has a lot of established JUGGERNAUT programs and a small handful of really exciting upstarts. It feels like the Jaguars need another year to get things settled, and we note that HC Steve Campbell did a good job at his previous stop in Central Arkansas. There is hope.
The Jags are a hideous 37-51-1 (42%) ATS over the past ten years and they are particularly poor at home posting a shameful record vs the number of 15-26-2 (37%). We recommend staying clear of these guys when building your weekly wagering cards.
Want more South Alabama Football ?
WEBSITE
http://usajaguars.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
http://southalabama.247sports.com/Board/South-Alabama-Jaguars-Message-Board-Forum-59456
NEWS
http://www.al.com/usafootball/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/6/south-alabama-jaguars
http://bleacherreport.com/south-alabama-football
TWITTER
Hashtag – #JagNation
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