College Football Predictions – South Alabama Jaguars 2020 College Football Preview
August 20, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 2-10
ATS – 7-5
Yikes.
The Jaguars struggled mightily and only managed to beat one FBS team (Arkansas St) during the campaign. After a victory over FCS foe Jackson St they proceeded to go on a torrid nine-game losing streak that made their fans’ toes curl. They managed to end the season on a high note when they took down the Red Wolves in the season finale (W 34-30).
South Alabama has only tallied nine wins over the past three years. What’s the prognosis heading into 2020?
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
Sun Belt – #9
South Alabama Jaguars 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Jags rolled out one of the worst offenses in college football last season (#113 total offense) and only managed to score 18.4 PPG (#121). There was a stretch of six games where they failed to score more than 17 points. The good news is that they found a spark at QB in Desmond Trotter who took over the starting gig in November and led them to 28,27,16 and 34 points. Trotter finished the year with an 8-2 TD to INT ratio and 197 rushing yards. The THROW GAME should have some success as they return their top-two WRs and recall that Kawaan Baker and Jalen Tolbert averaged 16.4 and 19.3 YPC respectively. The big concern is finding a replacement for their 1,000-yard RB Tra Minter who also snagged 32 balls out of the backfield. There are no proven options available so our best guess is a committee approach to the situation. The offensive line struggled LY but returns four starters to the mix, and things got a LOT better on offense in November, so maybe there’s hope? <grabs popcorn>
They’ll be more effective on offense this year but it still looks like an average group.
DEFENSE
They held up fairly well LY considering that they got very little help from the offense. They ranked #5 in the Sun Belt in scoring defense and were mid-pack in most major statistical categories. They only return five starters to the mix and need to completely reload up front where we’ll see all new faces in the starting lineup. That’s worrisome given that they only bagged 17 sacks LY (#9 Sun Belt) and their two best producers in that regard have graduated. The LB corps looks good with the return of three starters including leading tackler Nick Mobley and Riley Cole (#4 tackles, 3 sacks). The secondary could use some help from a pass rush of some kind. Safety Keith Gallmon is a good piece to build around.
We’ll call for a similar performance to the prior year but the DL looks like a problem area.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Jags will break in a new full time PK (Diego Guajardo) who had a cup of coffee LY (1/1 on FG attempts, 4/6 on XP) but Jack Brooks is back at punter. The KR and PR roles could definitely use some improvement.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule is nasty (at Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB) but at least the road date with the Gators has been canceled. There’s a four-game homestand in October where success is quite possible. Bad news? Four of their last five games are on the road.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Louisiana (November 14th)
This will be their 3rd road game in three weeks and the Ragin’ Cajuns promise to be nasty once again.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
The Jags have struggled in the FBS ranks and have yet to post a winning season. This year’s squad looks better on paper than recent iterations and they’re more than capable of pulling an upset along the way. They’re still at least a year away from getting to a bowl game or making any kind of serious noise in the division. In any event, we’ll be cheering for them to start moving in the right direction.
#JagNation !
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https://usajaguars.com/sports/football
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