College Football Predictions – Southern Miss Golden Eagles 2020 College Football Preview
August 18, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 6-7
Southern Miss got off to a decent 4-2 start with their only losses coming on the road vs SEC foes ROLL TIDE (L 49-7) and Mississippi St (L 38-15). They were in the hunt for the division crown until the final two weeks of the regular season when fell to Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic. They got SMOKED by Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl and enter the 2020 season on a three-game skid.
Let’s dive in and see if the Golden Eagles have a shot at winning the division this year.
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
Conference USA – #10
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Golden Eagles took a sharp turn to ONE-DIMENSIONAL TOWN last year when they were able to MATRICULATE the ball down the field with ruthless efficiency (#1 C-USA passing offense). The bad news? They couldn’t find any balance whatsoever and rushed for a meager 118 YPG (#121 FBS). Senior QB Jack Abraham is a great piece to build around as he has thrown for over 5,600 yards and 33 TDs over the past two seasons. The issue? 25 INTs is way too many, yo. They’ll need to get more out of the ground game and leading rusher Kevin Perkins returns (5.2, 3 TD) along with promising youngster Trivensky Mosley (injured LY, 4G). WRs Tim Jones and Jaylond Adams caught a combined 121 balls for 1,385 yards LY but the Golden Eagles will definitely miss star WR Quez Watkins who was one of the best WRs in the conference (1,178, 18.4, 6 TD) and left early for the NFL (Eagles). Four starters return up front and that gives us hope that they can be more balanced this season. They were 12th in the conference in TFL/game allowed LY (#5 sacks allowed).
There are definitely some TOOLS IN THE TOOLBOX that new OC Matt Kubik can utilize and recall that he did a great job with the offense at ULM. We’ll forecast a bit of improvement on this side of the ball but it’s still a mystery at RB and they need a new big play guy at WR.
<Note. Adams just announced he is opting out of the 2020 season.>
<Note. Mosley is no longer on the roster.>
DEFENSE
Southern Miss was a bit unbalanced on this side of the ball as well last year. They were rock solid vs the run (#1 C-USA) (!) and allowed a mere 118 YPG on the ground. They were mediocre vs the pass and tied for last in the conference in TD passes allowed (27) whilst finishing #10 in pass efficiency defense. There’s a decent core of players to build around this year with seven returning starters including a loaded LB unit that returns three men that finished in the top-seven in tackles whilst bagging 7.5 sacks LY. They lost some talent up front but DE Jacques Turner is one of the better DL in the conference (5.5 sacks LY). The secondary features a pair of potential all-conference performers in CB Rachaun Mitchell and safety Ky’el Hemby.
We like the talent that new DC Tony Pecoraro has to work with but he’ll need to find a way to shore up the pass defense. We’ll call for another solid year on defense, a bit worse vs the run, but a good-sized improvement vs the pass.
<Update. DE Jacques Turner and projected starting MLB Racheem Boothe have opted out of the 2020 season.>
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy. Return man Jaylond Adams is one of the most DEVASTATING special teams weapons in the country. He booked a pair of KR TDs and also took a punt back to the HOUSE in 2019. PK Andrew Stein was decent LY but could bit more consistent (3/5 from 40+ LY, missed 3 XP).
<Update. Adams announced he is opting out of the 2020 season.>
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Four non-conference affairs are on the docket as we approach post time. Getting North Alabama at home is a FREE SQUARE and they should be able to handle South Alabama (H) and Liberty (A). The home date with Tulane is a toss-up. They draw Western Kentucky and FAU in crossover action and that’s not ideal. Their first three games are at home and four of their last six tilts are ON THE HIGHWAY.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Western Kentucky (November 14th)
Tough spot to take the road doggie. This will be 3rd road test in five weeks and the TOPPERS have a nasty defense. Recall that Western Kentucky beat Southern Miss 28-10 in Hattiesburg LY.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
Tough number to make given the plandemic scheduling and the recent departures. It feels like a decent opener might be something like Over 5.5 -125, Under 5.5 +105. (assumes 11-games; They’re trying to add one more)
MEGAmazing Tidbits
After winning (or sharing) FOUR Conference USA titles from 1996-2003 they’ve only managed to emerge victorious one time (2011). Their last trip to the title game was in 2015 when they lost to a loaded WKU squad.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
The Golden Eagles haven’t had a losing season since 2014 but they’ve also failed to deliver on expectations over that time horizon. This squad looks decent but the recent departures of star players (transfer, opt-out) took a T-REX SIZED BITE out of the roster. Who knows if more dominoes will fall before the opening game? We think that a winning record is a reasonable goal to shoot for in 2020. Anything beyond that is a reach.
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NEWS
http://www.sunherald.com/sports/college/conference-usa/university-of-southern-mississippi/
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2572/southern-mississippi-golden-eagles
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