Stanford Cardinal 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Stanford Cardinal 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 9-5

ATS – 7-7

Oh, those pesky USC Trojans.

The Cardinal had another fine season bagging nine wins and making it to the PAC 12 Championship Game. They tried to avenge an earlier loss to the Trojans but fell for a second time to USC (31-28). They finished the year by losing an Alamo Bowl thriller to TCU after jumping out to a big early lead.

Let’s see if they have what is takes to make another run at the PAC 12 title.

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

North Division – #2

PAC 12 – #2

2018 Stanford Cardinal Outlook

OFFENSE

The Cardinal failed to reach the 400 YPG mark last year for the third time in the past four seasons (389 – #10 PAC 12) despite having an all-UNIVERSE performance out of RB Bryce Love. Love rushed for over 2,100 yards and 19 TDs at an impossible 8.1 (!) yards per carry. Oh, and he battled injuries for a good chunk of the season. The star RB is back for his senior campaign and should enjoy running behind one of the premier offensive lines in college football (excellent size, four returning starters). Sophomore QB KJ Costello was good in his first taste of action last season (59%, 14-4 TD to INT) and should be a perfect fit for the offense. Costello has an experienced group of targets to look to including last season’s #1 WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside (48-781 16.3, 9 TD) and emerging star TE Kaden Smith (414, 18.0, 5 TD LY).

We are excited about the prospects for this offense and fully expect them to exceed last year’s production in terms of YPG and PPG (389, 32.4).

DEFENSE

We are not as optimistic about the stop unit. Stanford allowed 169 YPG on the ground last season (#7 PAC 12) and yielded 63% completions (#9 PAC 12). This year they return 6 starters and have some big shoes to replace, particularly on the defensive line where they will certainly miss Harrison Phillips (16 TFL, 6 QBH, #3DC – Bills). In fact, there are only three returning starters in the front-7 although the LB group does look pretty good on paper. The secondary can’t get better losing a pair of AA (?) but they do have experience in the unit, and they will be buoyed by a healthy CB Alijah Holder who missed a good chunk of last season.

The defense has not been up to typical Cardinal standards the past few years and we are a bit skeptical (#6, #4, #3 PAC 12 last three seasons; #1, #2, #1 the three years prior).

SPECIAL TEAMS

Yes, guy.

The Cardinal should excel in this department with full continuity (just a new LS). PK Jet Toner connected on 21/26 FG attempts last season and P Jake Bailey was a 2nd Team PAC 12 selection (41.0 net). KR Cameron Scarlett averaged 26 yards per return in 2017.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It’s another typical Stanford slate. Tough. They draw San Diego St in week one (lost to them in 2017) and have back-to-back road games with Oregon and Notre Dame before the calendar flips to October. In early November they have to make a trip to Washington. There is a bit of a breather at the end of the season (final three games – Oregon St, at Cal, at UCLA).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Notre Dame (September 29). This meeting comes after a road trip to Oregon (yuuuuuuge game in PAC 12 North) and before a conference tilt with Utah.

Season Win Total

Over 8 -135

Under 8 +115

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean to the over. Despite the nasty schedule it’s not likely that they lose five games with that offense and HC. The -135 is not ideal. Need to think more about this one.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Stanford was known as the “Indians” from 1930 to January 1972, and the “Cardinals” from 1972 through 1981. Amaze your BRAZENLY TATTOOED CO-WORKER with that gem.

The Cardinal compete with Notre Dame for the Legends Trophy.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the CARDINAL a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.

The Cardinal enter the season as legit threats in the PAC 12 yet AGAIN and it can’t hurt to have one of the Heisman favorites in your backfield. The offense looks really good but the defense has us a bit concerned. We have been wrong about the quality of the stop unit before, but time will tell. The schedule is pretty nasty and their two most important division tilts are both on the road. Stanford has been a much better home team under HC David Shaw.

Speaking of David Shaw, is it possible he is the most underrated HC in college football? <we will hang up and listen> He has never had a losing season vs the point spread since taking over as HC seven years ago (58.7%) (!) and his worst win-loss record is 8-5 (2014).

It’s probably wise to keep them in mind most weeks when building your weekly betting cards.

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