Stanford Cardinal 2024 College Football Preview
Posted June 29, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 5-7
“Here we go again. Again.”
<Tugg Speedman, Scorcher VI: Global Meltdown>
It was rough season for the Cardinal as they finished 3-9 for the third consecutive year. The expectations were low for an inexperienced squad but it was tough to watch at times. On a positive note, Stanford managed to upset Washington St, and they provided us with one of the craziest comebacks of the entire season when they faced Colorado. The Buffs and COACH PRIME had a 29-CACK lead at halftime but watched in horror as the mighty Cardinal came all the way back to win in OT (W 46-43).
Let’s check in with the program and see what the roster looks like as they transition to the ACC.
Stanford Cardinal 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Cardinal were generally inept LY (#89 total offense, #103 rush, #110 scoring) but they’ll be improved this season with virtually everyone back on this side of the football. Dual-threat QB Ashton Daniels could be ready to have a breakout season as he definitely FLASHED in moments LY (11-8 TD to INT; 292, 3 rush TD) and his top-three targets are all available including star WR Elic Ayomanor (1,013, 16.3, 6 TD) who had almost 300 (!) receiving yards in the miracle comeback win over Colorado (13, 294, 3 TD). The RB unit is a BLACK HOLE as the only two players on the entire roster that had more than 113 rushing yards LY are the two QBs. We’ll monitor fall camp and see if anyone emerges from the pack. All five starters are back on the offensive line and that’s good news for an offense that’s been pathetic when it comes to running the football over the L6Y (119/107/87/133/106/108 YPG). Also note the Stanford has allowed 41 (!) sacks in each of the last two years so it’s clear that the offensive line has some work to do.
DEFENSE
It’s hard to have an honest discussion about things that make you violently ill without mentioning the 2023 Stanford defense **. The Cardinal ranked #132 in the nation in total defense (462 YPG) whilst allowing an impossible 38 PPG (#132). We’re happy to report that most of their key components are back including eight starters and their top-four tacklers. They were an inexperienced bunch LY so the pain and suffering of 2023 just might pay dividends in the upcoming season. We’re not crazy about the talent or size up front and that will likely be a problem area. The good news is that the LB unit is stacked given the return of their top-two tacklers (Bernadel, Sinclair) as well as sack leader David Bailey (5). Essentially everyone is back in the secondary and we expect the unit to take a step forward after the 2023 debacle (#132 pass efficiency D; 32-8 TD to INT ^^). We’re not expecting miracles but believe that the defense will be moderately improved.
** Also worth noting: Disney movies made after 2010, The View, undercooked Viking food.
^^ Did Stanford enjoy finishing #132 in almost every important defensive statistical category known to man? YOU BETCHA.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, there’s continuity to be happy about (P, PR, KR), but they lose their best player in the unit in PK Joshua Karty (23/27 FG, 21/21 XP LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference slate contains a pair of nasty ones (TCU, at Notre Dame) and two games that should go in the “W” column (Cal Poly, at San Jose St). All eight contests on the ACC schedule will be tough but at least they miss Miami and Florida St. Note that Stanford stays out west after their Nov 2nd game at NC State.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing overly-spooky is noted.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 29
Over 3.5 -150
Under 3.5 +120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
Can Stanford win a pair of ACC games? We think they can, and if they do, that’ll very likely get them ‘over’ the win total.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Stanford was 0-7 SU at home (!) last season and they’re a horrific 3-16 SU in front of their faithful over the L3Y.
It’s not too long ago that Stanford was a dominant force in college football. The Cardinal were champions of the PAC 12 Conference in 2012, 2013, and 2015 under HC David Shaw.
Former NFL great John Elway is one of three men who’ve had their jersey retired by Stanford (Ernie Nevers, Jim Plunkett).
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
We’re all gonna have to get used to how the puzzle pieces have moved around in the college football landscape, and one of the stranger ones to deal with is watching Stanford compete in the ACC. The Cardinal are clearly in rebuilding mode but this roster looks very capable of competing with many teams in the conference. Sadly, the schedule isn’t gonna be easy to navigate and we think they’ll fall short of bowl eligibility this season. We hope things go well and believe they’re more than capable of pulling a big upset along the way.