Sugar Bowl – Georgia vs Texas
The Game
This is one of the best match-ups of the entire bowl season as Georgia battles Texas in the Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs were close to making the College Football playoff even after getting their teeth kicked in by LSU but choked away the game vs ROLL TIDE. Texas couldn’t handle the explosiveness of Kyler Murray and the Sooners in the Big 12 Championship Game but still come into this one with nine wins. Can Texas SHOCK the WORLD?
The Details
Georgia -12.5 Texas (58.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia -9.5
Vegas Implied Projected Score: Georgia 35.5 Texas 23
The Match-Up:
Georgia offense vs Texas defense
The Bulldogs have one of the most efficient offenses in college football and they are going to be a handful for the Longhorns. Georgia is the #11 rushing offense in the FBS and the #4 team (!) in passing efficiency behind the solid work of QB Jake Fromm (27-5 TD to INT, 68%). The passing game doesn’t have a true “stats guy” but seven players have caught two or more TD receptions. WR Mecole Hardman can hit the big play (16.0, 6 TD) and TE Isaac Nauta is a tough match-up for any defense (14.7 YPC). And then…..there is the rushing attack. Stop us if you have heard this before BUT the Bulldogs have two excellent running backs. One has already eclipsed the 1,000-yard barrier (D’Andre Swift 1,037, 6.7 10 TD) and another is almost sure to get there during the Sugar Bowl festivities (Elijah Holyfield 956, 6.5, 7 TD). Texas has been fairly soft vs the run this season (#94 FBS) and the Georgia run game is almost certain to cause problems for the Longhorns defense. The Horns’ pass defense has been decent (#30 pass efficiency D) despite playing in the Big 12 so it seems like Texas will need to do their best to force the Dawgs into as many 3rd and medium / 3rd and long situations as possible. Georgia has only allowed 18 sacks all year and it seems unlikely that Texas will be able to get consistent PENETRATION.
Texas offense vs Georgia defense
This is where the magic has to happen for Texas. Georgia is going to get their points and it will be up to the Texas offense to make a few big plays and take advantage of any mistakes that the Bulldogs might make (those are rare). We are YUUUUGE fans of Texas QB Sam Ehlinger and not only does he have a pair of NFL-caliber WRs to work with (Collin Johnson – 945, 14.5, 7 TD; Lil’Jordan Humphrey – 1,109, 14.0, 9 TD) but he is also a capable and willing runner (13 rushing TDs). The run game has been average but Tre Watson and Keontay Ingram will make the Dawgs respect the ground attack. One of most compelling match-ups in this game will be the excellent Texas 3rd down offense (#18 FBS) vs a Georgia defense that really SACKS UP on 3rd downs (#18 FBS). The good news for the Longhorns is that the Dawgs have only bagged 22 sacks (tied for last SEC) and will be without star CB Deandre Baker in this contest.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Georgia KC Kirby Smart is 2-1 in bowl games and two of those went to OT…..Tom Herman is 2-0 SU in bowl games and 1-0 with the Horns after last year’s 33-16 win over Missouri…….Mr Herman also has a pretty amazing record as an underdog ATS which has been well documented on every TV and radio station from here to Jakarta.
Summary
This feels like a lot of points to be giving a highly-motivated and GOOD Texas team. Keep in mind that the Horns haven’t lost a single game this season by more than 12 points and the Georgia defense has not exactly been a brick wall. They have given up 27,21 and 35 points in their last three games and will be without a key piece on D for this contest. Georgia will need an “A” or “A+” game to win by two TDs. Possible. Not likely in our opinion.
Conclusion
Official play: Texas +12.5 -110
Side: Lean to Texas.
Total: Slight lean to the over.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.