TCU at Texas – College Football Predictions
The Game
Yes, guy.
This should be a great game with a pair of Big-12 contenders going head-to-head in Austin on Saturday. Both teams are coming off yuuuuuge games. Texas took USC behind the woodshed and bumped their record to 2-1 whilst the Horned Frogs did battle with Ohio St in prime time and lost 40-28. The Big-12 is wide open BUT this is a game both teams probably need to have. Who will emerge victorious?
The Details
TCU -3.5 Texas 48.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – TCU -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: TCU 26 Texas 22.5
The Match-Up:
TCU offense vs Texas defense
QB Shawn Robinson made a few big mistakes against Ohio St, but overall, we were impressed how he handled himself on the big stage. It was great to see a healthy Darius Anderson out there doing his thing including a 93-yard scamper to the house. They have a lot of speed to deal with including the impossible-to-tackle Kavontae Turpin and an emerging star at WR (Jalen Reagor). These guys are lightning-fast and move with tempo. Texas will need to be at their best to slow this offense down. Texas has been pretty average so far on defense and have only tallied four sacks in three games. They haven’t had a lot of success vs TCU in recent seasons and it’s going to be difficult to hold TCU below their implied team total.
Texas offense vs TCU defense
QB Sam Ehlinger played well enough in the victory over USC but faces his toughest task on Saturday vs the Horned Frogs. Ehlinger has a good 6-2 TD to INT ratio and has rushed for a pair of touchdowns BUT he is still prone to making the odd questionable throw. The Horns lack explosiveness at RB with the injury to Keaontay Ingram and have averaged 4.1 YPC as a team with a long of 30 yards. TCU has a lot of speed so they will almost certainly try and wear down the fast but relatively small defensive front. They got traction late in the game vs USC and certainly have a shot against TCU if they can do a good job on 3rd downs. Collin Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey provide a solid 1-2 combo at WR and there will be opportunities to grab some jump balls vs the Horned Frogs secondary. Can the OL hold up against the disruptive TCU defense? We think they will struggle to consistently move the ball but they have a shot to do some damage down the field if they can give Ehlinger some time to MATRICULATE down the field. It’s hard to know how good this TCU defense is after playing a pair of cupcakes and Ohio St BUT we do know that they have done a number on Texas recently.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Texas last defeated TCU back in 2013. The past four meetings have all been comfortable TCU wins (24-7, 31-9, 50-7, 48-10)……Keep an eye on Dicker the Kicker for Texas who is 3/3 on FG attempts.
Summary
Series history is very often irrelevant, but in this case, it feels like it could be more of the same. TCU runs the same offense that they have run the past number of years that gave Texas fits. Their team speed is going to be a real problem and it remains to be seen if the Horns’ defense can play to the level of the 2017 version. Texas will have to play a clean game on offense and hit a few big plays to win this one.
Conclusion
Official play: TCU -3 -109
Total: Slight lean to the under.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.