College Football Predictions – TCU Horned Frogs 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 11-3
ATS – 6-7-1
Oh, those nasty Sooners.
TCU had a fine season culminating in an Alamo Bowl victory over PAC 12 foe Stanford. The Horned Frogs have won 11+ games in three of the last four seasons. They will look back on the 2017 campaign and curse the powerful Oklahoma squad that took them down twice en route to a Big 12 Championship.
Revenge is a dish best served cold. Can TCU make another title run and deliver some payback?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #1
TCU Horned Frogs 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Horned Frogs move on without THRILL HILL at QB (67%, 23 TDs LY) and the hope is that sophomore Shawn Robinson can be a dynamic leader of the offense. Robinson displayed good mobility and threw three TD passes in limited action last season. The RB group is talented and includes legit #1 Darius Anderson who rushed for almost 800 yards last year (8 TD) before missing the remainder of the season due to injury. The Frogs return #1 WR Jalen Reagor who had a great year as a true freshman (576, 8 TD, 17.5) as well as killer SLASH KaVontae Turpin who can do a bit of everything when not returning punts and kickoffs for touchdowns. Our primary concern on offense is a line that lost a pair of players to the NFL draft.
We project good but not great offensive output this season, at least until the new pieces have a chance to gel (QB, OL).
DEFENSE
Yes, guy.
The Horned Frogs have bagged 40+ sacks in each of the past two seasons and should be nasty once again even with the departure of Mat Boesen (11.5 sacks LY). The line will be fantastic with a ton of size on the inside (Frosh AA Ross Blacklock) and 1st Team Big 12 DE Ben Banogu (16.5 TFL, 7 QBH LY). Senior LB Ty Summers had over 120 tackles in 2016 but they will move on without 1st Team Big 12 honoree and leading tackler Travin Howard (NFL – Cowboys). The secondary is almost always one of the best in the conference (#1 pass efficiency D Big 12 LY) and should be a rock again in 2018.
It all starts up front and the Frogs seem to have the best defense in the Big 12 on paper.
SPECIAL TEAMS
BOOM goes the DYNAMITE. Ace return man KaVontae Turpin returns for his senior campaign and is coming off a season in which he returned a punt and a kickoff for TDs. The kicking game also looks to be in good shape. TCU will probably have the best special teams in the Big 12.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not horrible. Playing Ohio St is never fun but at least that contest is in Arlington. They get the Sooners at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Kansas (October 27). This game pops up in an Oklahoma / Kansas St sandwich. The last two times TCU traveled to Kansas they were life and death to win, let alone cover massive point spreads. In 2016 they won 24-23 as 4-TD favorites and in 2014 they won 34-30 as (you guessed it) 4-TD favorites.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -110
Under 7.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. The defense should keep them in every game. There is a lot of upside if the offensive line and QB exceed expectations.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Gary Patterson is the 2nd longest tenured HC in the FBS (#1 – Kirk Ferentz, Iowa).
“TCU” won their first game in school history defeating something called Toby’s Business College by a score of 8-6.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the HORNED FROGS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
The Horned Frogs look like genuine contenders in a Big 12 conference that is more wide open than some folks will have you believe. You know they will bring defense, special teams, and elite coaching to the table. It all boils down to the production on offense. It remains to be seen how explosive and efficient they will be in 2018.
Gary Patterson has essentially a .500 mark ATS (63-64-2) over the past ten years. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY will tell you that they are “due” for a rock solid season vs the point spread in light of their 9-17-1 (34.6%) ATS record over the past two campaigns. We do see some merit in that argument, if only because they will probably fly under the radar with Texas and Oklahoma (and high-flying West Virginia) drawing a lot of attention. We will still take a bit of a cautious approach given the aforementioned concerns about the offense.
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WEBSITE
http://www.gofrogs.com/sports/m-footbl/tcu-m-footbl-body.html
FORUM
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NEWS
http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/college/big-12/texas-christian-university/
http://bleacherreport.com/tcu-football
https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/tcu-horned-frogs
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