College Football Predictions – TCU Horned Frogs 2020 College Football Preview
August 13, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 4-8
HEARTBREAK HOTEL, yo.
The Horned Frogs had a disappointing season but there were a LOT of close shaves. Sure, they were blown out on the road at Iowa St, but it’s amazing to think that their other six losses ALL came by seven points or less. They lost to the Sooners by four points in Norman and managed to beat Texas by double-digits (W 37-27).
TCU has booked a record of 12-13 over the past two campaigns. Can they turn things around in 2020?
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #7
TCU Horned Frogs 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Horned Frogs scored 30 PPG LY but that’s usually not good enough to put up a lot of wins in the Big 12. They ran the ball effectively (#3 rushing Big 12) but couldn’t get the THROW GAME going with any consistency. You knew there were going to be growing pains LY whilst breaking in a true freshman QB, but the hope is that Max Duggan can make a big step forward and cut down on the INTs this year (15-10 TD to INT ratio). He brings good mobility to the position and that will be important given that they lose their top-two RBs from a season ago that combined for over 1,300 yards on the ground. Guess what guys? Nobody returning to the offense other than Duggan recorded more than 100 yards rushing on the SEASON in 2019. Maybe highly-touted freshman Zach Evans can be a SURPRISE PACKAGE? Things don’t get any better when you consider that #1 WR Jalen Reagor (VERY underrated) has taken his talents to the NFL (Eagles) and no returning player had more than 400 yards receiving LY. They’ll rely upon Nebraska transfer JD Spielman to lead the group. Almost forgot. They also need to replace four starters on the offensive line, but at least they can build around their fine center Coy McMillon.
It’s hard to project much better than an average performance this season. There’s upside if Duggan improves a lot (very possible) and/or if one of their young RBs explodes on the scene (also possible). Stay tuned.
UPDATE Sept 3 – Starting QB Max Duggan is out indefinitely. It’s unclear who will be the starting QB, but this is a major blow.
DEFENSE
The Horned Frogs ranked #4 in the Big 12 in scoring defense (26.4) and #1 in total defense (337 YPG) LY. It’s nothing to sneeze at, but note that in the context of the FBS, those statistics are good but not great (#55 scoring defense, #27 total defense). Also recall that they bagged just 22 sacks LY (#9 Big 12) and that was the first time they tallied less than 30 since 2012.
What about this year? Well, you know HC Gary Patterson is going to get the most out of his defensive personnel, but there are only four returning starters to rely upon and that is their fewest since 2012. A pair of starters return on the DL but they will certainly miss stud DT Ross Blacklock who is off to the NFL (Texans). One piece of good news is the return of tackling machine LB Garret Wallow who is back for his senior year. The secondary is lacking in starting experience but they always cobble together a decent group in the back end. Losing CB Jeff Gladney to the NFL (Vikings) doesn’t help but Trevon Moehrig is one of the best safeties in the Big 12.
These guys always seem to play good defense, so we expect another decent year. Let’s hope they can cobble together a decent pass rush.
SPECIAL TEAMS
TCU was able to rely on PK Jonathan Song (23/24 FG, 39/39 XP) when they puked all over themselves inside the 20-yard line and couldn’t get into the end zone. Now? Who knows. Punter Jordy Sandy was mediocre LY. The return game was MEH a season ago and it’s unclear who will have the duties in 2020.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – They open with SMU in a tricky non-conference affair. They have six home games and four road games but note that the early Big 12 docket is SPICY as three of their first four opponents are nasty (Iowa St, at Texas, Oklahoma).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing heinous noted.
Season Win Total
Over 6 +125
Under 6 -155
Per BOL Sept 3rd.
MEGALOCKS says:
We projected a number close to Over 5.5 -130, Under 5.5 +110. No play for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The Horned Frogs have one Big 12 Championship to their credit and that is a SHARED version with the Baylor Bears. In 2014, both teams finished with identical 8-1 conference records, and each team was given a share of the title despite the fact that Baylor beat the Horned Frogs during the regular season (Baylor won 61-58 in Waco).
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
HC Gary Patterson has done a remarkable job with this program. He’s amassed a record of 172-70 (.711) in Fort Worth, but are things slipping a bit? The last two years have been a struggle, but maybe, just maybe, they’ve found their QB of the future. Having said that, there’s too much uncertainty across the roster for us to call for anything other than a bowl appearance and the ability to pull a major upset along the way.
Want more TCU football ?
WEBSITE
https://gofrogs.com/sports/football
FORUM
http://www.thefroghorn.com/index.php?/forum/3-frog-horn-sports/
http://tcu.247sports.com/Board/TCU-Horned-Frogs-Message-Board-Forum-101445
NEWS
https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/tcu-horned-frogs/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2628/tcu-horned-frogs
Hashtag – #GoFrogs
Accounts to follow