TCU Horned Frogs 2023 College Football Preview
July 19, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 13-2
ATS – 10-4-1
That was more fun than a BARREL OF MONKEYS **.
The Horned Frogs did what many folks thought impossible, and that was make it to the National Title Game. Ya, they got pulverized by Georgia, but it was a great 2022 season! TCU finished the regular season 12-0 after a few close calls and then dropped an OT heartbreaker to Kansas St in the Big 12 title game (L 31-28). They took down mighty Michigan in the College Football Playoff semi-final, but as noted above, they were no match for Georgia.
** don’t get your panties in a bunch, Karen. It’s just an expression.
TCU Horned Frogs 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
TCU was phenomenal on offense LY (38.8 PPG, #9 FBS) but they’ll need to replace a lot of pieces from that stellar group. QB Max Duggan was the Big-12 Offensive Player of the Year in 2022 and his leadership and ability to make the CLUTCH play will be impossible to replace. New QB Chandler Morris started the first game of the 2022 season but got injured and missed the rest of the season. The coaching staff is high on Morris so we’ll see how it goes. It’s not great to lose your top-three WRs including All-Galaxy specimen Quentin Johnston (60, 1,069, 17.8, 6 TD) but the Horned Frogs brought in several players from the transfer portal in an effort to restock including JoJo Earle from ROLL TIDE. The worst news is the departure of their devastating 1-2 RB combo that included 1,399-rusher Deandre Miller (6.2, 17 TD). ROLL TIDE transfer Trey Sanders will get his chance to shine as the feature back and it looks as tho they’ve got decent depth behind him on the depth chart. The offensive line should be fine as they boast a pair of excellent tackles but it’s worth noting that they lost a few really good players from last year’s squad. Oh, and their former OC is off to Clemson. Overall, this looks like a very good offense, but they’ll be down a decent notch from LY’s production.
DEFENSE
We’re actually more optimistic on this side of football even tho they lost some very talented players including AA and Thorpe Award winner Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and DE Dylan Horton (10 sacks). Seven starters are retained and they look like one of the better stop units in the Big 12. They’ve got excellent size on the DL and the LB group is loaded with the return of #1 tackler Johnny Hodges (9.5 TFL) and Jaomi Hodge (#3 tackler, 8 TFL). They also appear fine on the back-end with three returning starters including 1st Team Big 12 honoree CB Josh Newton (12 PBU, 3 INT). Our only concern is PENETRATION as the Horned Frogs tallied 30 sacks LY for the first time since 2018 and it’ll be tough to replace Horton’s sack production.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Losing a weapon like Derius Davis on PR is a killer (2 TD LY) but TCU might have the best kicking game in the Big 12 with the return of punter Jordy Sandy and PK Griffin Kell (17-19 FG, 8-9 40+ LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not unreasonable to think that TCU could start 7-0 (or at least 6-1) as the meat of the schedule comes in the 2nd half. Their last five games read as follows…..at Kansas St, at Texas Tech, Texas, Baylor, at Oklahoma. They don’t have to face back-to-back road games so that’s a plus.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Baylor (Nov 18)
This BAD BOY is sandwiched between yuuge dates with Texas and Oklahoma. Also be reminded that Baylor will be looking to exact revenge for the crazy last-second loss in Waco LY.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 19
Over 7.5 -150
Under 7.5 +120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
They should be able to roll through the first half of the schedule and hold their own in the second half.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
TCU is one of only four programs to have played in each of the New Year’s Six bowl games. They’ve tasted victory in five of those puppies (Rose, Sugar, Cotton, Peach, Fiesta) but lost in their only Orange Bowl appearance back in 1942 (1941 season).
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
This is one of the more interesting storylines heading into the 2023 season. How will these guys respond after going through such a memorable campaign? The roster still looks good but it’s always tougher to be the HUNTED, and there are a lot of Big 12 teams that’ll be licking their chops to take them down. It’s possible they find their way back into the Big 12 Championship Game but we’ll call for eight or nine wins and an invitation to a decent bowl game.