TCU Horned Frogs 2025 College Football Preview
Posted July 8, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 9-4
ATS – 8-6-1
The Horned Frogs were a bit of a mess in the first half of the season as they lost three of their first six games, and all of them were agonizing in their own special way. They blew a big lead at home vs UCF **** and lost by a single point, gave up 66 points to their hated rivals from SMU, and were upset at home by the rebuilding Houston Cougars who were 16-point underdogs in that event. To their credit, TCU pulled out of the nosedive and won five of their final six regular season games, and they put the cherry on top of the cake with a blowout win over Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl (W 34-3).
**** congrats MEGALOCKS TACTICAL NUKE CLUB members
TCU Horned Frogs 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The offense did an excellent job thru the air LY (#8 FBS) thanks to the play of QB Josh Hoover **** (3,949, 27-11 TD to INT) and a devastating set of WRs. The ground attack was a major disappointment (114 YPG, #113) and they’ll need to be more balanced this year if they have any plans of competing for a Big 12 title. Hoover is back at QB but he lost three of his top-four targets including #1 WR Jack Bech (1,034, 16.7, 9 TD) who’s off to the NFL (Raiders). WR Eric McAlister is a nice piece to build around (762, 19.5, 5 TD) and they added some talented transfers like WR Joseph Manjack (Houston), but it’s going to be next to impossible for this year’s WR crop to match what we saw in 2024. It looks like the Horned Frogs will roll with a committee approach at RB and they added UTSA transfer Kevorian Barnes to a unit that includes a few talented holdovers from LY’s squad. TCU will be utilizing a new center and left tackle up front but the offensive line still boasts over 90 career starts. We project a wee bit less overall point production but believe they’ll feature a more balanced attack, which is good.
**** unrelated to Holly Hoover, star of the unheralded Lunch Wagon Women franchise
DEFENSE
TCU’s defense was a bit under the radar LY as they allowed a respectable 24.6 PPG (#62) and they were very stingy vs the pass (#19 pass efficiency D, 14-10 TD to INT, 58%). Things look promising heading into 2025 as the Horned Frogs appear JACKED at every level of the defense. Top sack producer DE/LB Devean Deal (5.5) and NT Markis Deal headline a stout front line and they’ve got good size on the interior. LBs Namdi Obiazor (#2 tackles, 9 TFL) and Kaleb Elarms-Orr are excellent cogs in the middle of the defense, and the secondary will be one of the best in the Big 12 thanks in large part to the safety combo of Jamel Johnson and Bud Clark. We project TCU to have a top-five big 12 defense in several metrics, and look out if they can find a way to get to the QB more often (26 sacks LY, #59).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Horned Frogs have continuity in the kicking game as they retain the services of punter Ethan Craw and PK Kyle Lemmermann (15/22 FG, 54/55 XP LY), and they also have Jordyn Bailey back in the fold to handle the KR duties (21.3). They’ll need to find a replacement for PR JP Richardson who took one 89 yards all the way to the CRIBBY HIZZY vs Kansas last season.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Horned Frogs have a pair to tough assignments in non-conference action (at North Carolina, SMU) and they’re tasked with playing five Big 12 games on the road. The first four games of the conference schedule are very demanding (at Arizona St, Colorado, Kansas St, Baylor) and there’s only a bit of theoretical relief once they hit the final two game stretch (at Houston, Cincinnati).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing spooky enough to mention. The schedule is just a MEAT GRINDER from start to finish.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 8
Over 6.5 -155
Under 6.5 +125
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
19 of our 22 models have the Horned Frogs finishing with six or seven wins. This looks like an ‘over’ or pass situation, and we’ll take a seat for now.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
TCU is an eye-popping 19-7-1 in bowl games and nobody other than GEORGIA has taken them down in a bowl game since 2012 (!) when they lost to Michigan St by a point in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (L 17-16).
The Horned Frogs are just 9-9 in Big 12 contests over the L2Y.
President John F Kennedy made his last speech in Fort Worth, Texas on November 22, 1963. Kennedy was assassinated the following day in Dallas by multiple gunmen working for the CIA ****.
**** Fact check – Very likely.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
The Horned Frogs have the look of a dangerous team. They’ve got one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12 and the defense will be stingy, but that schedule is going to be tough to navigate. One could safely argue that after they destroy Abilene Christian on September 13th they won’t get a breather until a home game vs Cincinnati in the season finale. This looks like a bowl team no matter what, but we think they’ll finish just below THE TOP OF THE TABLE in the Big 12 this year.