College Football Predictions – Texas A&M Aggies 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 7-4-2
The Aggies finished with a bit of a whimper losing four of their final six games, and that included a three point loss to Wake Forest in the almost-always-crazy Belk Bowl (55-52 Demon Deacons). The win total for Texas A&M has been creeping down since 2012 (11-9-8-8-8-7) and Jimbo Fisher will try and get the program moving in the right direction towards the top of the SEC West.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
SEC – Tied #6
Texas A&M Aggies 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Aggies have fine potential to work with at QB as a pair of talented sophomores in Nick Starkel (laser rocket arm) and Kellen Mond (great with his legs) are ready to battle for the starting gig. MEGALOCKS TEXAS A&M QB INSIDERS feel that Starkel will get the nod (499 yards passing in bowl game) but the Aggies have to feel good about having a pair of experienced QBs (even if they are only sophomores). Trayveon Williams (798, 8 TD) leads a group of RBs that get to work behind a talented and experienced offensive line.
They will be without their top-2 WRs from last year’s unit including star WR/return JUGGERNAUT Christian Kirk (#2 NFL DC – Arizona) but still have quite a bit of young talent on board. Texas A&M averaged only four yards per carry in 2017 (#11 SEC) and struggled with their lowest rushing yards per game average (156) since 2014. They should have more success with the ground attack this year and finish right around last year’s scoring production of 32.7 PPG.
DEFENSE
PENETRATION, yo.
Texas A&M had an impressive 42 sacks last season (#1 SEC sacks per game, T2 FBS) and have bagged 82 over the past two seasons combined. The vast majority of that production returns in 2018, and overall, the Aggies can boast 8 returning starters. Those eight men include 3rd Team SEC DL Landis Durham (10.5 sacks) and 2nd Team SEC LB Tyrel Dodson (#1 tackler in 2017 – 105). The secondary brings back 3/4 starters and also get S Donovan Wilson back this season (injured early last year).
Not only do we appreciate the PENETRATION, but the run defense has been steadily improving since 2013 in terms of rushing yards per game (222,216,214,192,171). Texas A&M allowed 30.7 points per game in 2017 but we project a significant improvement this year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Ouch. Texas A&M will be without all-UNIVERSE return man Christian Kirk, as well as their excellent P Shane Tripucka. They still boast excellent PK Daniel LaCamera (18/21 FG LY) but appear to be an average (or worse) unit on paper.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Whoa. They have an epic home battle with Clemson (September 8) that should be appointment television. Oh ya, and they also have road dates with ROLL TIDE and Auburn.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – ULM (September 15). The MOTHER OF ALL SANDWICH GAMES. How about taking on a potential Sun Belt JUGGERNAUT in between games with Clemson and ROLL TIDE? The spread will be large. Beware!
Season Win Total
Over 7 -145
Under 7 +115
MEGALOCKS says:
We hate the painfully easy exercise of going through the schedule and anointing wins and losses. Things are often more easy (or difficult) than you think. The reality is that a date with Clemson and road tilts with ROLL TIDE, Auburn and Mississippi St are all REALLY tough games. If you are playing the “over”, you need 8+ wins to cash, and it seems like a big ask given the teams they face in 2018. The team has too much talent to go 6-6. Taking a pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Texas A&M was a member of the Big 12 for four years and made the Championship game twice (lost to CORN, beat Kansas St).
Johnny FOOTBALL originally committed to play football at Oregon.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the AGGIES a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
Texas A&M looks pretty good on paper. The problem is the schedule. The SEC West docket is nasty and they also get Clemson and South Carolina. The offense may struggle a bit in the transition to the JIMBO offense, but the defense will be much improved. This feels like a squad whose power rating will trump the win-loss record. They will still fly a bit under-the-radar so don’t be afraid to stick your toe in the pool once in a while.
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