College Football Predictions – Texas A&M Aggies 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 9-4
ATS – 10-3
The Jimbo Fisher era got off to a good start as the Aggies reached the nine-win mark for the first time since the 2013 season. They were almost able to SHOCK THE WORLD in week two vs Clemson but fell just a bit short (L 28-26). Other than the Tigers, the only other teams that managed to beat the Aggies were ROLL TIDE, Mississippi St, and Auburn. How about that 7-OT game vs LSU? Yes, we know it wasn’t ideal to see the young men play all those snaps, but that was a MIGHTY entertaining game.
Let’s check in with these guys and see if they have what it takes to keep the momentum going in 2019.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
SEC – #6
Texas A&M Aggies 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Aggies were excellent a season ago and were #4 in the SEC in scoring offense (36.0 PPG) and total offense (472 YPG). Their most impressive attribute was the balance they were able to achieve (219 YPG rushing, 253 YPG passing).
It’s going to be tough to replicate last season’s success without their amazing RB Trayveon Williams who booked over 1,700 yards rushing and 18 TDs (6.5) on the ground whilst also grabbing 27 receptions. Williams is off to the NFL (Bengals) and it’s highly unlikely they have anyone close to Williams’ caliber on the depth chart. Two of the more interesting pieces include last year’s #2 RB Jashaun Corbin (346, 5.7, TD) and UCF transfer Corrdarian Richardson. The good news? QB Kellen Mond is an emerging star and has excellent mobility. Mond has his full complement of WR targets back for duty but will be without AA TE Jace Sternberger (832, 17.3, 10 TD LY) who was chosen in the 3rd round of the NFL draft by the Green Bay Packers. The offensive line paved the way for 5.3 YPC (#3 SEC) but did allow an unseemly 35 sacks (tied for last SEC). Three starters are back in the mix but they lose their excellent center Erik McCoy (NFL – Saints).
The Aggies will still get to the 30 PPG mark but we doubt they will reach last season’s lofty heights.
DEFENSE
There’s some reloading to do on this side of the football. The Aggies return just four starters and will be without their top-six (!) tacklers from last year’s stop unit. There are losses at each level of the defense and they lose a ton of sack production. Mike Elko is a fine DC but he has some work to do in order for the Aggies to perform at the level of the 2018 unit (348 YPG, #7 SEC).
The defensive line loses a pair of players to the NFL but bring back DE Michael Clemons who missed last season due to injury. The size on the interior of the line is impressive and the Aggies have recruited very well at the position. They won’t be able to match last season’s ridiculous rush D numbers (95 PPG, #2 SEC) but should still be stingy. The losses at LB are troubling as the unit loses their top-two tacklers from a season ago. Otaro Alaka and Tyrel Dodson combined for 149 tackles and 21.5 TFL in 2018. Three starters return to the back-end of the defense and they are CHOCK FULL of highly-regarded specimens. They will have to find a way to be more effective vs the pass as they allowed 61% completions LY whilst only picking off 7 passes (T11 SEC).
We project the Aggies to have an average SEC defense this year, although we will concede there is some upside if they can find a way to cobble together another nasty pass rush (five straight seasons with 34+ sacks).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
They are loaded. Everyone is back from a unit that performed admirably in 2018. PK Seth Small nailed 20/28 FG attempts and they might have the best punter in college football. Braden Mann was a first team AA and posted an amazing 44.7 yard net. KR Jashaun Corbin averaged 30 yards on his 14 KR (TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – They only play four true road games all year BUT three of those are really tough (Clemson, Georgia, LSU). In fact, the games with the the Bulldogs and LSU Tigers are the final two games of the regular season. The non-conference slate outside of the battle with Clemson is a piece of cake and they get ROLL TIDE at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at LSU (November 30)
Outside of PAYBACK for last year’s loss, the Tigers will come into this game off a match with Arkansas and the Aggies will have played a tough game vs Georgia the prior week. And we know how tough it is to play in Baton Rouge.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -115
Under 7.5 -105
MEGALOCKS says:
That seems logical. They’ll do well to book eight wins in a “reloading” season, but we won’t put it past them. Taking a pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Last year Texas A&M finished ranked in both the AP (#16) and Coaches Poll (#16) for the first time since 2013.
Alabama coaching legend Paul “Bear” Bryant led the Aggies to a Southwest Conference Championship in 1956 when they finished with an overall record of 9-0-1.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
Jimbo Fisher already has this team on the right track but it feels like they might be a year away from contending in the GROUP OF DEATH (SEC West). There are many new faces on defense and it’s never easy to replace a superstar RB. And that road schedule. Yikes.
The Aggies were an excellent 10-3 ATS in the first year under their new head coach. It feels like a snap-back vs market expectations is on the menu this year.
In any event, GIG EM!
Want more Texas A&M football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.12thman.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
http://www.secrant.com/rant/texas-a-m-sports/
http://tamu.247sports.com/Board/Texas-AM-Aggies-Forum-20
http://www.agtimes.com/boards/viewforum.php?f=1&sid=777feca6e4d61449845913658cb011c2
NEWS
https://www.goodbullhunting.com/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/245/texas-a&m-aggies
http://bleacherreport.com/texas-am-football
TWITTER
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