Texas Bowl – Vanderbilt vs Baylor
The Game
It’s a battle of 6-6 squads that missed out on bowl season last year as Vanderbilt takes on Baylor in the Texas Bowl. The Commodores won three of their last four games to get here and that included another victory over their rated rival from Knoxville. The Bears needed a win over Texas Tech in their final regular season game and bagged it. So here we are!
The Details
Vanderbilt -4 Baylor (55)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Vanderbilt -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Vanderbilt 29.5 Baylor 25.5
The Match-Up:
Vanderbilt offense vs Baylor defense
Yes, guy.
We get one last chance to see the best (?) QB in Vanderbilt history (Jay Cutler….cough cough). At least from a statistical standpoint, if Kyle Shurmur finishes this game it’s a virtual certainty that he will end up the #1 QB in Vanderbilt history in all meaningful categories. What about this year? Well Shurmur has had an excellent campaign (64%, 23-6 TD to INT) and is one of the best under-the-radar quarterbacks in college football. There are multiple options in the passing game when they choose to MATRICULATE the ball down the field with the THROW GAME. WR Kalija Lipscomb has 81 (!) receptions and 9 TDs whilst TE Jared Pinkney is one of the best receiving targets at his position in the nation (45-698, 7 TD). Even better news? RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn has already exceeded the 1,000-yard plateau and rushed for 100+ yards in three of the Commodores’ final four contests. Baylor? There is not much to say. They don’t provide much resistance on defense. The Bears are ranked #80 in the FBS vs the run and #99 in pass efficiency defense. They are also horrible on third downs (#104 FBS). Do they force turnovers? Nope. They only took the ball away 9 times all season (dead last Big 12). Vanderbilt would need to have a really bad day to not exceed their implied team total.
Baylor offense vs Vanderbilt defense
QB Charlie Brewer has done a good job this season and managed to get the Bears to a bowl game after the team finished 1-11 (!) last year. Brewer had an average 17-8 TD to INT ratio but played really well late in the season vs Iowa St and Texas Tech. The Bears are definitely going to miss their best offensive player in WR Jalen Hurd as he led the team with 946 receiving yards and also ran the ball 48 times. Amaze your SMOKING HOT MISTRESS with this trivia nugget. Jalen Hurd ranks #7 in the FBS in plays of 10+ yards and #5 in receptions for first downs (53). We think the Baylor offense is going to miss him and their RB group is decent but lacks a true #1 option. Vanderbilt is nothing special on defense BUT have done an adequate job against powerful attacks including Missouri.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Special teams could play a big part in the outcome…..Baylor leads the FBS with seven blocked kicks BUT will be without star P Drew Galitz for this contest……Vanderbilt has not had a winning season under HC Derek Mason (0-1 in bowl games) and would love to put that notch in their belt….Baylor bagged wins over Abilene Christian (!!), UTSA, Kansas, Kansas St, Texas Tech and Oklahoma St…..The Commodores only tallied two wins over bowl teams (MTSU, Nevada) but did play really good games vs Notre Dame (!), Florida and Kentucky.
Summary
This is a pretty simple handicap. Who knows if it works out? Baylor has no edge that we can identify (offense, defense, special teams) and we also think that the Commodores will be laser-focused on achieving a winning campaign. Baylor’s #1 goal was to make a bowl game. Woo hoo! Mission accomplished. Another thing to keep in the back of your mind. If anyone screws this game up with penalties, turnovers and generally horrible football acumen is will almost certainly be Baylor. Not to mention that if Vanderbilt HC Derek Mason told us to run 10,000 miles with a fridge on our back we would do it. Twice.
Conclusion
Official play: Vanderbilt -4 -106.
Total: Lean to the over.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.