Texas Bowl – Washington St vs Iowa St
The Game
Yes, guy.
We have a mighty fine match-up in the Texas Bowl this season as Washington St does battle with Iowa St. The Cougars come into this contest with a record of 10-2 (!) with the only losses coming to USC on the road (by 3 points….easily could have won that bad boy) and the Apple Cup loss to Washington in the snow to end the campaign. Iowa St got off to a sluggish start but have rattled off seven wins in their last eight games. Their only loss in that timespan was to a really good Texas team on the road.
The Details
Washington St -2.5 Iowa St (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Washington St -4
Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Washington St 29.5 Iowa St 27
The Match-Up:
Washington St offense vs Iowa St defense
This is shaping up to be a really fascinating match-up. QB Gardner Minshew has been excellent this season throwing for almost 4,500 yards and 36 TDs with only 9 (!) INT in 613 attempts. The Cougars are really hard to defend because they distribute the ball well in the THROW GAME (9 players on the team with 280+ receiving yards) and RB James Williams has 76 receptions. The rushing attack is a bit of an afterthought but they have still managed to rush for 22 TDs this year. Iowa St has been decent vs the pass (#3 Big 12 pass efficiency D) but have only bagged 8 INTs all season. Iowa St will have to do their best job of getting pressure on the QB and they have registered over 30 sacks. It’s not easy to get to Minshew but the Cyclones should be able to PENETRATE and bag a sack two or three times. Then they need to get off the field.
Iowa St offense vs Washington St defense
QB Brock Purdy took over under center in October and the Cyclones responded well. Purdy has completed 66% (!) of his passes with a fine 16-5 TD to INT ratio and is also the teams’ #2 rusher. WR Hakeem Butler is one of the best WRs in the Big 12 and averages and obscene 22 (!) yards per reception. RB David Montgomery runs with the WHITE HOT INTENSITY OF 1000 SUNS and provides excellent balance for the offense. The depth is not great at WR or RB but the Cyclones are still efficient enough to move the ball (#22 passing efficiency FBS). Washington St is sound defensively (#35 vs the run, #52 pass efficiency D) and are #1 (!!) in the PAC 12 in sacks per game. Iowa St is #104 in total offense and are lucky to have their key TRIPLETS healthy for this game so we expect decent production (mid-high 20s) but nothing spectacular.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Mike Leach is just 6-7 SU in bowl games and 1-3 SU with the Cougars (W 20-14 over Miami in the 2015 Sun Bowl)….Iowa St had a fine run to end the regular season but their last five wins came vs Texas Tech, KU, Baylor, Kansas St and something called Drake.
Summary
The motivation angle favors the Cyclones. You KNOW they will be intense and are happy to be here. Washington St? They have laid a few bowl eggs lately but keep in mind that this is still a REALLY talented team that finished 10-2. We think the line is a bit short.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Side: Lean to Washington St.
Total: Slight leanage to the over.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.