Texas Longhorns 2016 NCAA Football Preview
TEXAS LONGHORNS
Big 12 Conference
2015 Record – 5-7
ATS – 5-5-2
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
Big 12 Conference #3
2015 Recap
What a roller coaster ride. Losing by a combined 88-10 to Notre Dame and TCU. Beating Baylor and the Sooners as huge underdogs. Staging a big comeback against California only to miss an XP and lose by one point. The defense was really bad by Texas standards (106th total defense in NCAA). The passing game was almost non-existent (117th in the NCAA). The Longhorns did not participate in bowl season but things are looking up in 2016.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Texas made a nice hire grabbing their new OC Sterlin Gilbert from Tulsa. They are likely to start true freshman Steve Buechele at QB who will give Texas an actual living breathing passing game to go along with a loaded backfield. It looked to us watching a good chunk of the Orange and White spring game that he could do a bit of everything. However, we are a bit worried about him getting pounded running the ball with that frame. They do have depth.
There is a lot of young talent at WR and the upside is truly unknown given the QB situation last season. The offensive line is very young and while the Longhorns averaged well over 200 yards rushing per game in 2015 – they also allowed 32 sacks. The new QB and offensive scheme will get the focus from a lot of fans early but we will be watching to see how the big boys do in the trenches as the season moves along.
JUGGERNAUT ALERT – RB Chris Warren III ran for 382 yards on 53 carries (7.2 yards a pop) in the final two games of the season. Yes, it was against Texas Tech and Baylor, but there is no doubting the talent and he is a load at 6-2 250 pounds. They also return D’Onta Foreman who led the team in rushing – but it is Warren III that we are most interested in watching this season based on what he did to finish up 2015.
DEFENSE
One of the biggest disappointments last season was watching the Longhorns give up over 30 points a game. With a ton of talent. With Charlie Strong as HC. The season after allowing 24 points per game and only 349 yards per contest. Granted, they played a very tough slate of offenses, but that has been the case for quite some time.
On paper the Longhorns’ defense should be a lot better this season. They return Big 12 Freshman Player of the Year in LB Malik Jefferson – along with an experienced secondary – and a DL that has a lot of size and guys that can get to the QB. A ton of potential – but you still have to do it on the field.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Texas has enough special athletes that it should not be hard to cobble together a decent return game even with the loss of PR Daje Johnson. The big question is at PK where there it was a huge question mark entering the season and remains so even after the spring game.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
The odds of a Texas Longhorns resurgence in 2016 are quite good. A ton of raw talent all over the roster. A promising young QB. And motivation to reclaim a spot as a serious player in the Big 12 Conference.
Overall, we give the LONGHORNS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season. As good as QB Buechele looked in the spring game you have to believe there are going to be growing pains. The early schedule is tough with Notre Dame, at California, at Oklahoma St and the Red River Rivalry game vs Oklahoma on the docket before the middle of October. Texas is also a team that people like to bet and the point spread as often shaded in their favor. The Longhorns have only exceeded 7 wins ATS once in the last 10 years. We are cautiously optimistic heading into the season that the Longhorns can be a money maker.
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