Texas Longhorns 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Texas Longhorns 2018 NCAA Football Preview

Recap

Record – 7-6

ATS – 8-5

Hey, now.

The Longhorns achieved their first winning season since the memorable 2013 campaign (8-5) with a Texas Bowl victory over Missouri (MEGALOCKS 887,000 STAR LASER LOCK loser). They get big marks in our books for beating a hot Tigers squad with so many players injured and bailing on the team. They started the season getting POLEAXED by Maryland at home but played good football the rest of the way considering all of their injuries. They lost on the road to USC in 2-OT and came within five points of the Sooners.

This is year two of the Tom Herman era. You know this program is going to get really good. Will this be the year?

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Big 12 – Tied #4

Texas Longhorns 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

It didn’t feel like a productive offense, particularly given all of the injuries they suffered, but last season’s Longhorn offense managed to roll to 398 YPG. Texas scored 29.5 points per contest and that was their second best total since 2013. Texas has a pair of capable QBs to go with this year in Sam Ehlinger and Shane Buechele who combined for 18 TD passes and 11 INT in 2017. Leading rusher Daniel Young is back (373, 3 TD) but they get a generous talent infusion with Cal transfer Tre Watson and freshman Keaontay Ingram. Texas returns their top-2 WRs including #1 Collin Johnson (765, 14.2, 2 TDs) and also boast a bevy of talented freshmen. Our primary concern with the offense is an OL that underperformed last season, albeit they were ravaged with injuries. The prospects for the group were buoyed by the transfer of Rice LT Calvin Anderson.

We project the Horns to come in close to the 30 PPG mark this season. There is more upside than downside risk.

DEFENSE

Texas returned ten starters on defense last year and it was reflected in their performance (#41). They were especially stingy vs the run (107 YPG, #8 FBS). This year they return seven starters but will have to deal with loss of their top-2 tacklers from last season’s stop unit (LB Malik Jefferson – team leader in tackles and TFL, AA S DeShon Elliott). The DL will still be stout and they feature two senior starting LB and an excellent CB in Kris Boyd (15 PBU LY). The Longhorns allowed 21.2 points per game in 2017 and we expect a similar level of success this season.

SPECIAL TEAMS

One of the most underrated departures in college football is the chasm left by star P Michael Dickson (NFL – Seattle). It looks like the Horns will go with freshmen at PK and P. <grabs popcorn>

Schedule Analysis

Overall – Tough, but not horrible. They get USC at home and their toughest road tests come vs Kansas St and Oklahoma St. They don’t have to deal with any back-to-back road contests.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing of note.

Season Win Total

Over 8.5 -105

Under 8.5 -115

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean to the over. The right set of circumstances could lead to the Longhorns bagging double-digit wins. Keep in mind that it is still a bit of a leap of faith given their recent history.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Charlie Strong had the first losing stretch as Texas HC (16-21, .432) since the immortal Jack Chevigny (.483) who led the team from 1934-1936. In fact, those are the only two men who have had losing records as HC since the program debuted in the 1890s.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the LONGHORNS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.

It’s deja vu all over again.

Texas gets another crack at Maryland and USC in the first three weeks of the season before Big 12 play begins. Those games should give us a good indication of what is in store the rest of the way. The roster has a lot of talent including a pair of capable QBs and a fine head coach in Tom Herman. Can all of the raw materials FINALLY come together to deliver an excellent season? It feels like a team that needs to be respected most weeks when building your weekly betting cards. Hook ’em.

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NEWS