Texas Longhorns 2019 College Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Texas Longhorns College Football Preview

2018 Recap

Record – 10-4

ATS – 6-8

Progress.

The Longhorns had been mediocre for quite some time but managed to punch their ticket to the Big 12 Championship Game. The Sooners got revenge for the loss in the Red River Rivalry and BROUGHT HOME THE BACON when it mattered. It was a fine season for Texas and the icing on the cake was a MEGALOCKS 78,001 UNIT CRUISE MISSILE BOWL GAME OF THE CENTURY winner when they beat the Georgia Bulldogs outright (W 28-21) as double-digit underdogs in the Sugar Bowl.

Tom Herman definitely has these guys on the right track. The question becomes: can they keep the momentum going this year?

2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Big 12 – #2

Texas Longhorns 2019 Outlook

OFFENSE

It can’t hurt to have one of the best quarterbacks in college football in your huddle; not to mention that he is a MEGALOCKS favorite. Sam Ehlinger threw for almost 3,300 yards last season with an amazing 25-5 TD to INT ratio and also rushed for an impossible 16 TDs. Ehlinger will miss #1 target Lil’ Jordan Humphrey who led the team in receptions (86) and receiving yards (1,176) a season ago but he still has two excellent targets to rely upon. Senior wideouts Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay combined for over 1,500 yards and 11 TDs last year and will be one of the best WR combos in the Big 12. Highly-recruited freshman Bru McCoy was thought to be a potential star but decided to play at USC.

It’s unclear what to expect from the RB unit as last year’s leading rusher Tre Watson is gone and there is no clear #1 option left behind as far as we can tell. The offensive line returns just a pair of starters to the mix and that worries us a bit. Texas gained 153 YPG a season ago (#8 Big 12) and just 140 YPG in 2017 (#7 Big 12) and have allowed 28+ sacks in each of the last five years. The addition of 1st Team ACC guard Parker Braun (transfer from Georgia Tech) is a very welcome supplement to the group.

We anticipate that Texas will produce a similar level of output as the prior three seasons (31.1, 29.5, 31.9 PPG)

DEFENSE

Texas has fielded good stop units in each of the past two seasons but they enter this campaign with just three returning starters. There are a lot of highly-recruited specimens in the mix but it takes a bit of a LEAP OF FAITH to assume that Texas can just pick up where they left off last year.

The entire DL and LB units need to be rebuilt from scratch and they are sure to miss stud DE Charles Omenihu who led the Longhorns in sacks (9.5) and TFL (18) LY, not to mention last year’s top-two leading tacklers at LB Gary Johnson and Anthony Wheeler. We feel good about a secondary that was acceptable a season ago (#4 Big 12 pass efficiency D) as they bring back a pair of great safeties in senior Brandon Jones and 1st Team Big 12 honoree Caden Sterns.

Our gut feel is that the Longhorns have a respectable defense but a notch below what they have cooking at Iowa St and TCU.

SPECIAL TEAMS

It’s good to have DICKER THE KICKER in your corner. PK Cameron Dicker hit 18/25 FG attempts last season including an impressive 8/13 from 40+ yards (51/52 XP). P Ryan Bujcevski is back for duty (Texas #87 FBS net punting LY) and PR D’Shawn Jamison took one 90 yards for a TD in 2018.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – WOO! No need to worry about losing to Maryland this year (they aren’t on the schedule). Things get nasty in week two as the LSU Tigers come to town. Almost all of their toughest games pop up before November rolls around.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Rice (September 14)

The date with the Owls comes right after the sure-to-be grueling battle with LSU and before Big 12 play kicks off (Oklahoma St). It might be a bit much to expect Texas to cover a big number in this spot.

Season Win Total

Over 9.5 +160

Under 9.5 -185

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean to the under. This team is talented enough to win 10 games but there are a lot of new faces that need to prove themselves.

MEGAmazing Tidbit

As of the end of the 2018 season, Texas’ all-time record is 908–370–33 (.705), which ranks as the third-most wins in FBS history (Michigan 953, Ohio St 911). ROLL TIDE is nipping at their heels with 905 victories.

MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral

Tom Herman has given Texas their mojo back. Last season was the first time the Longhorns had a double-digit winning season since 2009 and expectations haven’t been this high in a long time. They have the QB and a roster stocked with talent, but we wonder how quickly all the new pieces can come together to produce a top-tier Big 12 squad.

Texas has a 14-13 ATS mark in the two seasons under Herman’s watch and we recommend using caution when they are in the role of home favorite (3-7 L2Y) and taking a hard look at them in their biggest games, particularly if they are catching points.

Hook ’em!

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WEBSITE

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FORUM

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NEWS

http://www.burntorangenation.com/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/251/texas-longhorns