Texas Longhorns 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 23, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 12-2
ATS – 7-7
The Longhorns showed us they meant business when they came into Tuscaloosa and upset set mighty Alabama (W 34-24) and they kept rolling until they met up with the Sooners. Oklahoma won in dramatic fashion (34-30) but that didn’t deter Texas from running the table the rest of the way right into the Big 12 Championship Game. The Longhorns took Oklahoma St out behind the WOODSHED (W 49-21) and punched their ticket to the CFP. Sadly for Texas fans, their team became another victim of the JUGGERNAUT Washington Huskies (L 37-31) and they ended the season at 12-2, one game away from playing for a National Championship.
Texas Longhorns 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Longhorns put up 36 PPG LY (#15 FBS) and they were an extremely balanced outfit (188 YPG rush, #25; 289 YPG pass #17). Texas will have one of the most devastating offenses in the country this season and it starts at QB with the return of Quinn Ewers whom ANALYTICS GUY doesn’t seem to love, but LY’s numbers speak for themselves (69%, 22-6 TD to INT; 5 rush TD LY). Texas has highly-recruited specimen Arch Manning waiting on the depth chart at QB and all signs point to him being ready to go if needed. The RB room is still loaded after losing #1 option Jonathan Brooks (1.139, 10 TD) as they retain the #2 and #3 backs (CJ Baxter, Jaydon Blue) along with a few other extremely talented youngsters including true freshman Jerrick Gibson. The WR/TE group loses three (!) players to NFL Draft including 1,000-yard wideout Xavier Worthy but they did a fine job restocking thru the transfer portal by adding former ROLL TIDE wideout Isaiah Bond (668, 4 TD), Oregon St WR Silas Bolden (746, 5 TD), and ROLL TIDE TE Amari Niblack (327, 4 TD). The offensive line boasts talent and experience (122 career starts) and is ranked #2 in the country by the intrepid Phil Steele. WHOA, NELLIE. We can’t wait to see these guys carve up some defenses.
DEFENSE
Texas allowed less than 20 PPG (18.9, #15 FBS) for the first time since 2009 LY (!) (16.7) and they were an absolute BRICK WALL vs the run (82 YPG, #3). The Longhorns are gonna be down a notch in the run defense department this season as they lose a pair of outstanding DTs to the NFL Draft, both of whom were taken in the first two rounds (Sweat, Murphy). They’ve got both starting DEs back in the mix including Ethan Burke (5.5 sacks) and we love the addition of freak DE Trey Moore from UTSA (14 sacks LY). The LB corps looks fine given the return of Anthony Hill who FLASHED as an all-American frosh LY (!) and David Gbenda (#4 tackles) but we’re still worried about the back end of the defense after last year’s mediocre performance (#49 pass efficiency D, 61%, 21-16 TD to INT). Two starters return to the secondary along with ‘Star’ position veteran Jahdae Barron (#3 tackles) and it doesn’t hurt to add safety Andrew Mukuba from Clemson. This has the makings of a very good defense but we don’t believe they’ll allow less than 20 PPG in 2024.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Texas is thrilled to have ace PK Bert Auburn returning for duty (29/35 FG, 56/56 XP LY) but they need to reload at punter, KR, and PR.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule features three TOMATO CANS and the other contest is an epic road battle vs Michigan in week two. That is some SWEET ACTION, yo. The SEC schedule is favorable as they face most of the SEC “scrubs” and they get to deal with Georgia (H) and Oklahoma (N) on favorable terms.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing heinous to report.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 23
Over 10 -160
Under 10 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
We don’t see this team losing three games to make the ‘over’ a losing proposition.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Steve Sarkisian is 27-18 ATS (60%) as a home favorite during his time with Washington, USC, and Texas (10-7, 59%).
Last season marked the first double-digit winning season for Texas since 2018 (10-4). Prior to the 2018 campaign, Texas last won 10+ games back in 2009 (!). It’s time for Texas to start rolling again, BAY-BEE.
The next time you’re visiting Austin we highly recommend the “Communism Aficionados” bus tour. It’s a 5-star rated adventure in which you not only get to witness government officials haul political prisoners off to the gulag, but you also get to attend a lecture by real life ‘professors’ trained in brainwashing youth into a life of crime, hatred, and misery. It’s fun for the entire family!
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
College football is better when Texas is really good. Guess what? Texas is really good. The offense looks ridiculous and it’ll be able to shred almost every defense on the schedule. The defense will be down a notch so they’ll have to win a few FIREFIGHTS to win an SEC title, or more importantly, a National Championship. This is clearly a playoff-caliber team and it’ll be interesting to see if Steve Sarkisian can lead this team to the promised land.
HOOK ‘EM!