Texas Longhorns 2026 College Football Preview
Posted August 6, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 5-7-1
You can’t really sugarcoat it. That was a disappointing season for the Longhorns as they failed to make the College Football Playoff despite having a loaded roster and high expectations. Texas played very well in the opener at Ohio St and outgained the Buckeyes 336-203, but couldn’t get the job done. Fun fact: That was their highest game grade of the year per the INTREPID Phil Steele.
Texas lost at Georgia near the end of the year, but the real NAIL in the COFFIN was the inexplicable loss to the Florida Gators and our boy Billy Napier. A 9-3 regular season record just wasn’t gonna be good enough to play for all the marbles given all the legitimate players at 10-2 or better.
Can Texas take the next step and contend for a National Championship in 2026?
Texas Longhorns 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (SEC):
- Scoring: 30.5 PPG (#7)
- Total Offense: 388.5 YPG (#9)
- Rushing: 137.8 YPG (#11)
- Passing: 250.7 YPG (#7)
- Sacks Allowed: 23 (#6)
The offense has got to be better this year, and there’s definitely reason for a lot of optimism, starting with the return of star QB Arch Manning (61%, 3,163, 26-7 TD to INT; 399 rush, 10 TD). Manning had his ups and downs, but definitely got better as the season progressed. He’s a Heisman Trophy favorite, and for good reason.
The Longhorns offense was mediocre by their standards last season, and a major reason for that was a run game that just couldn’t get going. The Longhorns made a pair of YUUUGE additions at RB in Raleek Brown, who tore it up at Arizona St last season (1,141, 6.1, 4 TD), and HOLLYWOOD Smothers, who did similar damage at NC State (939, 5.9, 6 TD). The THROW GAME will be electric as Texas boasts one of the premier 1-2 WR combos in the nation in Ryan Wingo (834, 15.4, 7 TD) and the impossibly-talented Cam Coleman, who rolls into town from Auburn. Coleman hasn’t been able to reach his potential thanks to the TRASH masquerading as quarterbacks at Auburn, and we expect big things from him this year.
The offensive line is one of the best in the SEC, and Manning certainly helps them out with his mobility and smarts. We just hope the run blocking can improve. Stay tuned!
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (SEC):
- Scoring: 20.3 PPG (#6)
- Total Defense: 338.8 YPG (#8)
- Rushing Defense: 103.9 YPG (#5)
- Passing Defense: 234.9 YPG (#12)
- Sacks: 41 (#3)
The defense did admirable work vs the run last year, but they got ripped apart through the air. The run defense should be excellent again in 2026 given the look of the first two levels of the stop unit. The defensive line is incredibly talented and features one of the most devastating PENETRATORS in DE Colin Simmons (12 sacks, 15.5 TFL, 15 QBH!) to go along with excellent interior players.
The LB corps is loaded with the return of Ty’Anthony Smith and the addition of sideline-to-sideline tackling machine Rasheem Biles, who filled up the stat sheets at Pitt last year (101 tackles, 17 TFL, 2 INT). We’re also interested to see if highly-recruited true freshman Tyler Atkinson can make an impact in his first season.
Texas has to get better on the back end. It was pretty disappointing to see how they performed last season given all the heat that they put on the quarterback. Truthfully, there are some talented dudes in the secondary that should rise to the occasion this season, such as free safety Jelani McDonald (#1 tackles), CB Bo Mascoe (Rutgers), and DB Graceson Littleton, who’ll do a great job covering receivers in the slot.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
Texas has had three (!) top-five finishes in the Phil Steele special teams rankings over the last four seasons, and they look solid in this department once again. It all starts with game-changing punt returner Ryan NIBLETT, who put up insane numbers last year (21, 476, 22.7, 2 TD), and it concludes with a solid kicking combo in PK Gianni Spetic (15/20 FG, 4/5 from 50+, Memphis) and punter Mac Chiumento (Florida St).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Longhorns are going to be tested — that’s for sure. The grind starts in Week Two when THE Ohio State University rolls into Austin, and there are four nasty SEC games on the docket, including trips to LSU and Texas A&M in November.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Arkansas (Nov 21)
Once you stop laughing and pick yourself up off the floor, consider the context. Texas will be laying a ton of points, and this game falls between road trips to LSU and Texas A&M (final week). There’s no reason to care about running up the score with bigger games ahead, and don’t forget that WOO PIG and Texas were bitter rivals back in the days of the Southwest Conference. Not saying, just saying.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – August 6
Over 9.5 +110
Under 9.5 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
This team has way too much talent to lose three regular season games. Right?
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Golden Hat wasn’t always part of the Red River Rivalry. The bronze cowboy-hat trophy was introduced in 1941 by the State Fair of Texas (originally called the Bronze Hat). It was later gold-plated in the 1970s and has been the signature prize of the Texas–Oklahoma game ever since. And there’s your proof that the only thing louder than Red River chaos is a gold‑plated cowboy hat, yo.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian is 28-5 at home with the Longhorns, but is just 14-9 on the road.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Texas has reached the point where it’s time to get serious — 35 wins over the past three seasons is impressive, but the Longhorns still haven’t had a chance to play for a National Championship, and expectations in Austin are sky-high.
There will be no excuses this season: the schedule is tough, but the roster is absolutely CHOCK-FULL of talent, led by one of the best quarterbacks in college football and enough firepower to overwhelm almost anyone. You could nitpick the offensive line or the secondary, but the pressure is clearly on Texas to at least reach the final game and see what happens. The Longhorns are legitimate national title contenders, and we’re expecting to see their best football yet as they push for the sport’s biggest prize.
Hook ’Em!