Texas St Bobcats 2016 NCAA Football Preview
TEXAS ST BOBCATS
Sun Belt Conference
2015 Record – 3-9
ATS – 3-9
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
Conference #11
2015 Recap
After two seasons of being snubbed by the bowl community despite having the requisite 6+ wins, the Bobcats were on a mission to achieve their first bowl appearance. The were decimated by the injury bug and fell apart after a nice win over conference foe South Alabama. The Bobcats finished up losing five of their last six games and settled for a 3-9 record. New HC Everett Withers will try and regroup and get this program back on the right track.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Well, they have their QB. Tyler Jones is back for his final season and he accounted for over 3,000 yards last year (2,484 passing, 583 rushing) as well as 24 TDs (14 passing, 10 rushing). No official announcement his been made but we assume that Jones will at least have the opportunity to start the year and see how things go. He may be a one-man team on offense.
MEGALOCKS FACTOID. The WR group is just a wee bit inexperienced. With the departure of a couple of players including Demun Mercer, the Bobcats do not return a single WR that recorded more than ONE reception in 2015. That is what they call a complete reload. Chris French is the leading returning TE (4 catches last year).
We are not sure what to make of the RB group. Leading rusher Robert Lowe departs and it is unclear who will step up and grab the starting role. Or even significant playing time. The hope is that skill players emerge on offense and become a pleasant surprise for the coaching staff.
The offensive line returns 3/5 starters and they actually did a decent job last season all things considered. They ran for 187 yards per game and the OL allowed just 20 sacks on well over 400 attempts.
DEFENSE
The Bobcats defense performed poorly last season giving up almost 40 points per game. They ranked 2nd last in the Sun Belt in rushing defense and dead last in pass efficiency defense. Not a great recipe for success. They only managed 15 sacks.
Texas St returns 6 starters on defense and switches to a 3-4 alignment for new defensive coordinator Randall McCray. It is hard to be too optimistic when they gave up an eye-popping 7 yards per play last year but they do have a number of junior and senior starters. We are taking a wait-and-see approach with the defense but do not expect more than minor improvement.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Lumi Kaba is back to handle the FG and punting duties. Kaba did a fantastic job punting last year but was erratic in the FG department (10/18). Brandon McDowell did a fine job returning punts last season and will do the same work in 2016. They need to find a replacement for solid KR Brandon Smith. Overall, this unit is pretty good.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.0
MEGALOCKS says:
The schedule is definitely more challenging in the first half of the season with games against Ohio, Arkansas, Houston and Georgia St, but there are three winnable games in the final five-game stretch of the year.
Overall, we give the BOBCATS a 2.0 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season. We worry about the offense. Tyler Jones is a decent QB but we have no clarity right now surrounding any of the playmakers that he will be relying upon this season. And the defense ? It is safe to say they will probably give up less than 39 points per game (#HotTake) but it is very much up in the air in terms of whether or not the improvement will show up in the win-loss column. We cannot see ourselves backing Texas St early in the season. However, there might be a chance later in the year with significantly inflated spreads, if they really get trucked in the non-conference schedule. Pass for now.
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