College Football Predictions – Texas St Bobcats 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 6-6
The Bobcats struggled yet again and just couldn’t seem to get any momentum going under former HC Everett Withers who was let go after compiling a record of 7-28 (!) in San Marcos. Their three wins came against weak competition (Texas Southern, New Mexico St, Georgia St) and they only scored 21 total points in their final three contests.
Jake Spavital comes over from West Virginia where he was OC to lead an experienced and hungry football program. Can they take a step forward this year? Let’s find out.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
Sun Belt – #9
Texas St Bobcats 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Bobcats will start fresh at QB this season and that is probably a good thing. Tyler Vitt struggled with INTs last year and Willie Jones left the program. Gresch Jensen is the leader in the clubhouse for the starting gig and he did some nice work at Montana in 2017 under then HC (and current Bobcats OC) Bob Stitt. The RB corps returns intact but it’s unclear if there is a true #1 option on the depth chart. The WR unit is a bit of a black hole, although Jeremiah Haydel averaged over 20 yards per catch (16 receptions) a season ago. Texas St will miss last year’s #1 option in the THROW GAME in TE Kennen Brown who led the team in receptions, receiving yards and TDs (51, 577, 5 TD). The offensive line returns five (!) starters which is a major plus, but keep in mind that Texas St struggled mightily on offense a season ago, so we may see a changing of the guard up front.
Texas St was awful on offense in 2018 and averaged a measly 19.8 PPG which was by far the worst mark in the Sun Belt. In fact, the Bobcats have posted less than 20 PPG in each of the past three years. We think they will exceed the 20 PPG plateau but they will need some time to reach their potential.
DEFENSE
Things look pretty good on this side of the ball as Texas St returns a whopping 10 (!) starters to a stop unit that allowed a respectable 27.7 PPG (#5 Sun Belt) while getting ZERO help from an offense that couldn’t stay on the field (#107 FBS time of possession). The DL returns three starters and has nice size on the interior. The Bobcats have one of the strongest LB units in the Sun Belt and their top-two tacklers are both back in the mix. Bryan London (1st Team Sun Belt) and Nikolas Daniels combined for well over 200 tackles and 12.5 TFL in 2018. Texas St had the #2 pass efficiency defense (!) in the conference last season and all four starters are back.
New DC Zac Spavital (co-DC Texas Tech LY) has a lot of talent on board. Texas St has improved in YPG allowed every season since 2015 going from 522 YPG to 384 YPG in 2018. We forecast a slight improvement in both the scoring defense and total defense metrics once again.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The performance last year in the kicking game can best be described as a HOT MESS. It’s looks as though the Bobcats may have new players in the PK and P roles and that can’t be a bad thing. The return guys should be fine.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It looks manageable. The only (dare we say it) unwinnable game is the opener at Texas A&M which will likely be a bloodbath. Four of their final six games are on the road including tough ones at Arkansas St, Louisiana and Appalachian St. If they want to have a respectable season we suggest they get cooking in the first half of the campaign.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at SMU (September 14)
Teams usually feel like they have been in a three-hour car wreck after playing a physical Wyoming squad. The Bobcats’ conference opener is on deck (Georgia St) and that is a MUST WIN game if they want to even think about making a run at bowl eligibility.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 -125
Under 4.5 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
We don’t think we have suffered a head injury, but we may be interested in taking a taste of the ‘over’ if a really low number pops up on our screen. <grabs popcorn>
Update – “4.5” not low enough. Pass.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
We are happy to see the Texas St program get an injection of LIFE and something to look forward to with the change in coaching staff. Time will tell how successful Jake Spavital will be in San Marcos but he gets to start out with an experienced team that boasts a good defense.
We are caught somewhere between mildly-positive and neutral on the Bobcats’ overall ATS prospects. The defense will keep them in a lot of games but it may take some time for the new offense to get into gear. Mild interest at MEGALOCKS HQ.
Eat ’em up, Bobcats!
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