Texas St Bobcats 2023 College Football Preview
July 1, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 5-7
Another year, another losing season.
Things didn’t start out too bad as they were 3-3 at one point and looking far from completely-horrible. They even managed to beat Appalachian St handily as yuuuuge underdogs (W 36-24). The Bobcats then endured three close shaves in a row (three losses by a combined 10 points) and that was that.
There’s a new sheriff in town. Let’s see what new head coach G.J. Kinne has to work with in 2023.
Texas St Bobcats 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
One of the more interesting storylines in the Group of Five is the potential for the Texas St offense to be a LOT of fun to watch. G.J. Kinne brings his devastating offensive system from Incarnate Word (52 PPG LY) (!) and it’ll be interesting to see how much damage he can do in year one. Arkansas transfer QB Malik Hornsby will be running the show, and while he’s LIGHTNING FAST, he hasn’t had much experience with the THROW GAME (39 career pass attempts). Everyone returns from the RB room including leading rusher Lincoln Pare (772, 5 TD) and they bring back three of their top-five WR targets. There are also a bunch of transfer bodies added to the WR mix including former SMU Mustang Beau Corrales. The offensive line boasts three starters from Incarnate Word and a few other transfers that Kinne should be able to cobble into a decent unit. It’s not fair to expect miracles but we expect much better production out of the offense.
DEFENSE
The Bobcats were decent on defense LY (26.3 PPG, #6 Sun Belt total defense, #4 run defense) but much like the offense, things will look quite a bit different this year in terms of personnel. Only four starters are retained and they’ll need several transfers to step up and grab starting roles. A few useful pieces include DE Jordan Revels (11 TFL, 10 QBH LY), transfer CB Kaleb Ford-Dement (Wash St), and the safety combo of Tory Spears and Incarnate Word transfer Kaleb Culp. This looks like one of the weaker defenses in the Sun Belt.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yup, we’ve got another potential problem area. It’s a rebuilding project on special teams but they do retain punter Seamus O’Kelly (40.5).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Yikes. They start out with a pair of BODY BAG GAMES (at Baylor, at UTSA) and they draw a road game with Coastal Carolina from the East. On a positive note, they’ve got a pair of winnable non-conference contests in September (Jackson St, Nevada).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing overly-spooky is noted.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 1
Over 4.5 +130
Under 4.5 -150
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
It’s hard for us to find five wins on that schedule. If you want to play the ‘over’, there are a few flat ‘4’s out there so make sure that you shop around, yo.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Bobcats best season came back in 2014 when they went 7-5. They have yet to make a bowl game appearance.
San Marcos, Texas is a part of the Great Austin Metropolitan Area which means that the citizens have a daily fight vs their Communist overlords.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
We can’t lie. We’re intrigued. The magic may not happen in year one of the G.J. Kinne experiment but at least there’s some hope on the horizon. We’ve always wanted to see what QB Malik Hornsby is capable of doing as a starter and we’ll find out in a hurry. We doubt they’ll have trouble SCORING the FOOTBALL but the defense could be really bad.
We project them to miss out on a bowl game but definitely think they’re capable of pulling an upset or two along the way. Let’s go Bobcats!