Texas St Bobcats 2025 College Football Preview
Posted June 16, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 6-7
The expectations were high, and the results were disappointing.
The Bobcats were a popular pick to win the Sun Belt last season and some folks had them pegged for a Group of Five playoff spot. Unfortunately, they lost three conference games including a pair of puzzlers (at Old Dominion, Georgia St), and were never serious players in the West division. Texas St finished the season on a strong note by winning the First Responder Bowl for the 2nd consecutive season and they finished at 8-5 for the, wait for it, 2nd straight year.
Texas St Bobcats 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Bobcats moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last year and ranked #15 in the nation in rushing offense (208 YPG) and #22 in passing offense (269 YPG). Texas St is undergoing a serious facelift on offense as they need to replace their starting QB, #1 RB, and top-three WRs. Former starting QB Jordan McCloud has left big shoes to fill (3,227 passing, 30 TD; 7 rushing scores LY) and it’ll be a real battle over the summer to see who gets the nod as starting QB in week 1. Could it be Pitt transfer Nate Yarnell? He’s booked a 15-6 TD to INT ratio over the L3Y with the Panthers but has the mobility of a SHIPWRECK. Keldric Luster (SMU), and Holden Geriner (Auburn) are also in the mix but it’s anyone’s guess how it all plays out. The BOBS have a fine 1-2 RB punch with the return of Lincoln Pare (554, 5.8, 8 TD) and the addition of Greg Burrell (UNLV), but the fortunes of the offense will likely rise and fall with the production of the transfer portal bodies at WR. It’s not gonna be easy to replace THREE 600-yard producers and the portal haul didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard. Returnee Chris Dawn (418, 6 TD) is a decent place to start but they’ll need additions like Tyrin Smith (UTEP), Mavin Anderson (Cal), and Tiaquelin Mims to rise to the occasion. The OL returns a pair of starters and it’s a group that’s got impressive size across the board. There’s obviously potential for the offense to be excellent but we still have significant doubts about the THROW GAME clicking as well as it did in 2024. Stay tuned!
DEFENSE
Texas St boasted one of the sneakier stop units in the country LY as they allowed a respectable 24.5 PPG (#4 Sun Belt) and 358 YPG (#3 Sun Belt) whilst being MASTERS OF PENETRATION (#1 Sun Belt TFL/game). The Bobcats return just a pair of starters and three of the top-12 tacklers to the stop unit but at least they retain their excellent pass rushers at DE in Kalil Alexander (6.5 sacks, 12 TFL) and DE Jo’Laison Landry (4.5 sacks, 7.5 TFL). We’re worried about the middle of the defense that woefully lacks FBS starting experience and the only returning starter in the secondary is SS Ryan Nolan. This doesn’t look like a Sun Belt Championship-caliber defense but time will tell.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Bobcats rated an impressive #27 in the Phil Steele special teams rankings LY but they’ll be undergoing a major reload this season given the departure of ace PK Mason Shipley (Texas)(!) as well as their productive KR tandem.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – There are a pair of tough non-conference tests (at UTSA, at Arizona St) but they should be able to get past Eastern Michigan and something known as Nicholls before Sun Belt action gets fired up. They get a fair draw from the East division (James Madison, at Marshall) and their Sun Belt hopes and dreams will almost certainly come down to back-to-back road battles with West division foes Louisiana and Southern Miss in November.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UTSA (Sept 6)
The Roadrunners are an impossible 24-2 (!) at home over the L4Y and they’re legit contenders in the AAC this season. Texas St has a trip to Arizona St the following week in which they’ll try to avenge LY’s 31-28 loss in San Marcos.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 16
Over 7.5 +120
Under 7.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
The Bobcats found a way to lose five regular season games in each of the L2Y and this year’s roster doesn’t blow us away.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The intrepid PHIL STEELE reminds us that Texas St was the only team to finish the 2024 regular season with 3000 passing yards and 2500 rushing yards. We call that balance, yo.
The Bobcats have a winning record over just ONE current Sun Belt team. ULM? Nope. Georgia St? Nope. How about Arkansas St? Nope. The answer to that SPICY question is South Alabama. Texas St has tangled with the Jaguars on nine occasions and posted a record of 5-4 ****.
**** “MEGALOCKS. Home of meaningless trivia.”
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Year three of any regime in college football is often the point where you see a big jump in success. The problem is that HC G.J. Kinne has already done fine work with the Bobcats (8-5, 8-5) and they don’t appear to have a significant talent edge over the majority of the Sun Belt like they did the L2Y. We believe that they’re overvalued in the betting markets as we approach press time but they’re definitely a force to be reckoned with in 2025.