Texas Tech Red Raiders 2016 NCAA Football Preview
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
Big 12 Conference
2015 Record – 3-9
ATS – 7-5
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
Big 12 Conference #8
2015 Recap
Stop us if you have heard this before. Texas Tech scored a ton of points last season but could not stop anybody on defense and ended up with a disappointing record. They started out with a bang with three straight wins and a 3-point loss to TCU but still ended up with a 7-6 record after getting steamrolled by LSU in the Texas Bowl. To be fair, their losses were to some pretty good teams (TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, West Virginia, LSU), but it just felt like a waste of a season given how prolific their offense was the entire year.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
The Red Raiders had the #2 ranked offense in the FBS averaging 579 (!) yards of offense per game. QB Patrick Mahomes had the season you would expect out of a Red Raiders QB throwing for a million yards and 36 TDs. The majority of the WR crew is back for the 2016 campaign other than Jakeem Grant who left Texas Tech as the school’s all-time leader in receiving yards.
Texas Tech was very fortunate to have a two-time 1000-yard rusher in DeAndre Washington who also did a great job catching the ball out of the backfield. We are skeptical that they will be able to reproduce his production and the running element of this offense is very underrated. The offensive line is also rebuilding with only two returning starters.
DEFENSE
As great as the offense has been the defensive performance has been pretty much inexcusable. The Red Raiders have given up over 40 points a game two years in a row and they are not going to compete for a Big 12 Title until they get their defense to at least an average level. They return six starters to the group but we are not sure if that is a good thing since they gave up 280 yards rushing (!) per game last season and allowed 61% completions while registering only 19 sacks. The bright spot is a very experienced secondary (3 senior starters) which will hopefully slow down opposing passing attacks.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Freshman PK Clayton Hatfield did a great job last season connecting on 14-16 FGs. They are going to miss KR Jakeem Grant who returned two kickoffs back for TDs last season. This group looks to be in good shape if they can get some production out of the return game. We could make a hilarious comment about the KR unit being in line to get a lot of work but will not grab the low-hanging fruit.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Texas Tech looks to be in good shape to open the season at 3-1 or better. The game at Arizona St will be tough but SF Austin. Louisiana Tech and Kansas should all end up as wins for the Red Raiders. Then the schedule gets a bit nasty.
Overall, we give the RED RAIDERS a 2.5 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season. It will not come as a surprise to long-time MEGALOCKS readers that have a hard time getting interested in teams that fail to play anything resembling defense. HC Kingsbury is going to have his hands full this season with a rebuild offensive line and no DeAndre Washinton to rely upon. Not to mention the defense. The Red Raiders are a game below .500 ATS in three seasons under this HC and we think they will be fortunate to break even for handicappers in 2016.
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