College Football Predictions – Texas Tech Red Raiders 2020 College Football Preview
August 13, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 5-6-1
Texas Tech stumbled to their 4th consecutive losing season and only managed to bag four wins along the way, and two of those victories came against Montana St and UTEP. Now to be fair, they did pull at upset at Oklahoma St (W 45-35), and did suffer a number of close defeats. They fell to Baylor, Kansas, TCU, and Kansas St by a combined 11 (!) points. Ouch.
Let’s see what HC Matt Wells has to work with in his second season in Lubbock.
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #8
Texas Tech Red Raiders 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Red Raiders still slung the ball around the yard last season (#1 Big 12 passing offense, #2 total offense) but only managed to put up 30.5 PPG which was their worst mark since the 2014 season (also 30.5 PPG). They were bad on 3rd down conversions (#8 Big 12; top-3 in each of previous three seasons) and it didn’t help that QB Alan Bowman got injured. Jett Duffey filled in admirably LY (2,840, 18-5 TD to INT) but it’s Bowman’s ship to sail in 2020 and he’s proven to be a great passer when given the opportunity to start, AND is able to stay healthy. Two of the Red Raiders top-three WRs are back for duty and note that 12 (!) different players had 10 or more receptions LY. They’re likely to spread it around and be effective in the THROW GAME no matter what, yo. RB SaRodorick Thompson led the team in rushing LY and bagged 12 rushing scores whilst catching 39 (!) passes. Texas Tech returns just a pair of starters on the offensive line but one of those is center Dawson Deaton who is one of the best at his position in the Big 12.
These guys shouldn’t have trouble scoring 30+ PPG but the lack of depth at QB is a concern.
DEFENSE
The Red Raiders scoring defense has been better the last three seasons averaging just over 30 PPG. This comes after three consecutive years of allowing over 40 PPG. They’re still giving up a lot of yards and finished #10 in the Big 12 (#127 FBS) (!) in total defense in 2019. The pass defense was particularly horrid LY as they allowed over 300 YPG at an impossible 9.2 yards per attempt (#127 FBS). They did however pick off 14 passes which was 3rd best in the conference. This year they return eight starters to the mix but will definitely miss star LB Jordyn Brooks who led the team in tackles LY (NFL – Seahawks). The good news is that they have solid players at each level of the defense. DE Eil Howard led the team in sacks LY (5), LB Riko Jeffers was 3rd on the team in tackles, and CB Adrian Frye and S Thomas Leggett are good pieces to build around. They generated a lot of TFL last season (#3 Big 12 TFL/game) but only bagged 24 sacks.
We’ll project a slight improvement on defense, but they’ll need to improve on 3rd downs (#9 Big 12 LY).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
The kicking game is in excellent shape. PK Trey Wolff nailed 20/22 FG attempts LY and punter Austin McNamara is probably the best punter in the conference. Note that the Red Raiders were #4 in the FBS in net punting in 2019. They could use some spice in the return game.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Their non-conference game is a home-opener vs Houston Baptist which is a FREE SQUARE to kick things off. They get five home games and host both Oklahoma and Texas. Their tough games are as spread out as you could get, and that means it’s less likely you see them go on an extended losing streak.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Kansas St (October 3rd)
This comes after their Big 12 opener vs Texas and you KNOW they will have put 110% effort into that game. Kansas St is tough and scrappy and tough to beat in Manhattan. We doubt we’ll be on the road team in this affair.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
Our initial reaction would be to set the line at something like Over 4.5 -135, Under 4.5 +115.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
In a game against something called Centenary back in 1939, the Red Raiders set the NCAA record for most punts in a game (39) (!). Centenary punted 38 times. The combined punt total of 77 is also an NCAA record. Our DEEP NCAA FOOTBALL STATISTICAL INSIDERS seem to think that record is safe.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
We wouldn’t be surprised to see a sneaky-good season out of Texas Tech. If Bowman can stay healthy (hmm, not a given) the offense promises be really good. You can never be too hopeful about the Red Raiders’ ability to play defense but they could improve a bit in Matt Wells’ 2nd year. They’re a year away from being truly dangerous but we see them going bowling this season for the first time since 2017.
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WEBSITE
https://texastech.com/sports/football
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https://247sports.com/college/texas-tech/Board/FOOTBALL-102951/
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NEWS
http://redraiders.com/sports-red-raiders-football
https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-tech-red-raiders/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2641/texas-tech-red-raiders
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