College Football Predictions – Troy Trojans 2018 NCAA Football Preview
Recap
Record – 11-2
ATS – 7-6
Hey, now.
That was an impressive season. They lost the opener at Boise St (like pretty much anybody would, AMIRITE?) and had a misstep vs South Alabama the week after beating LSU on the road. Other than that? All wins, baby. They snagged a share of the Sun Belt title and put the icing on the cake with a 50-30 beating of North Texas in the New Orleans Bowl.
The Trojans are now 21-5 (!) over the past two years. Let’s try and determine what’s in store for the program in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
Sun Belt – #2
Troy Trojans 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Troy has a similar issue to deal with as that of their conference rival in Boone, NC. They must replace a rock solid four-year starting QB. Brandon Silvers ended his career as the school’s 2nd all-time leading passer (10,684) and his leadership and production will be sorely missed. The role of starting QB will be decided over the coming weeks and will fall to one of a couple of youngsters whom each have limited experience (Sawyer Smith, Kaleb Barker). We will be monitoring the situation closely over the summer. It’s hard to know what to expect. The good news is that there will be plenty of fine options in the passing game when the Trojans choose to MATRICULATE in the passing game. Their top-2 WRs from last year’s squad are back including 2nd Team Sun Belt honoree Deondre Douglas (48-628, 13.1, 4 TD LY) and they get a talent infusion via transfer from Louisville (Traveon Samuel).
Another big-time hurdle to overcome is the departure of their top-2 RBs from last year’s team including Jordan Chunn who retired as the program’s #2 all-time leading rusher (3,081). Chunn also hauled in 28 receptions and scored 10 TDs on the ground in 2017. #3 RB Jamarius Henderson averaged 7.9 yards a pop last season but there is a big question mark here in terms of replacing a ton of rushing production. The good news is that the offensive line did a decent job last year (4.7 YPC, only 15 sacks allowed) and returns four starters. They will however miss their star LT Steven Rowzee (1st Team Sun Belt selection LY).
Troy has averaged over 30 PPG in each of the past two seasons (31.5, 33.7). It’s going to be hard to get to that marker unless the QB play exceeds expectations.
DEFENSE
Amaze your PSYCHO EX-GIRLFRIEND with this knowledge bomb. Troy has improved in YPG allowed in each of the past four seasons, from 483 yards per contest in 2013, down to 337 (!) yards per game in 2017. The Trojans were #7 in the FBS in run defense last season and tallied 42 sacks (T8 FBS). This season the Trojans only have five returning starters to the stop unit but WHOA are they talented. The DL is deep and features excellent NG Trevon Sanders 6-0, 310, 2nd Team Sun Belt LY) and the LB corps has an embarrassment of riches. Tron Folsom led the team in tackles last season (9 TFL, 2nd Team Sun Belt) and Hunter Reese was named to the 1st Team Sun Belt after bagging 14 TFL and 4 QBH. Want more? The CB tandem of Blace Brown (1st Team Sun Belt, 5 INT LY) and sophomore Marcus Jones is top notch.
This is the best defense in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This unit looks good. There is continuity at P and PK with a steady Tyler Sumpter handling the dual duties. CB Marcus Jones was a TD waiting to happen last season and took three KOs the distance (in addition to his INT return TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – We like it. They get Boise at home in week one (probably a loss) and then travel to Nebraska in week 3 (probably a loss, but who knows?). The conference docket is very manageable and we find it hard to see them playing their way out of a winner-takes-the-East road game with Appalachian St to end the regular season.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing too spooky.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -135
Under 7.5 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over as we go to press. It’s hard to have a truly strong conviction without knowing what they have at QB. We do know that their defense will be really good and HC Neal Brown is a rising star.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Who can forget the 1948 PAPER BOWL when Troy was shutout by Jacksonville St 19-0?
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TROJANS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
This should be interesting. The defense is set, but can the offense rise to the occasion despite all the lost production at key positions? These are the Days Of Our Lives.
Last season we gave Troy a very high ATS Value Rating (8.0), and while they certainly had a fine campaign, they were just a game over .500 vs the point spread. The ATS Value Rating is meant to be a directional indicator (‘On’ or ‘Off” Watch List to start the season, anticipated value in betting markets, etc.) This year we have a more conservative outlook but you CANNOT deny the record of Neal Brown vs Vegas (22-16, 58%) and his ability (so far) to get his team to exceed market expectations. We also get their defense in our back pocket. Respect.
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WEBSITE
http://www.troytrojans.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
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NEWS
http://www.dothaneagle.com/sports/troy/
http://bleacherreport.com/troy-trojans-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/troy-trojans
TWITTER
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