College Football Predictions – Troy Trojans 2020 College Football Preview
August 9, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 4-8
After rattling off three consecutive double-digit win seasons (31 total victories) the Trojans posted a disappointing mark of 5-7. There were a couple of close calls in there to be sure as they lost one-score games to Arkansas St, Southern Miss, and Coastal Carolina. They finished the campaign on a sour note getting blasted by Louisiana and Appalachian St by a combined score of 101-16.
Let’s see what the Trojans have to offer in Chip Lindsey’s 2nd year at the helm.
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #3
Sun Belt – #5
Troy Trojans 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
Troy did a good job of SCORING THE FOOTBALL (#3 Sun Belt, #25 FBS) and were especially potent when it came to utilizing the THROW GAME (#1 Sun Belt passing offense, #9 FBS). That was thanks to the fine play of QB Kaleb Barker who threw for over 3,600 yards and 30 TDs LY. Barker departs and now the Trojans have to figure out who will run the show at QB. It’s unclear who will get the starting gig as we roll towards press time but it just might be junior Parker McNeil who transferred from Navarro College (3,000 yard passer). The good news is that the Trojans are STACKED at the RB position with the return of last year’s leading rusher DK Billingsley (901, 10 TDs) and their star rusher from the 2018 season B.J. Smith (1,186, 13 TDs). The Trojans also boast the deepest (and likely most talented) WR group in the Sun Belt that returns its top-five passes catchers from a season ago. It’s not ideal to lose three excellent offensive linemen to graduation so it will be interesting to see how quickly the new group comes together.
It’s difficult to know what to expect from the offense given the contrast between the excellent RBs and WRs, and the uncertainly on the offensive line and at QB. Troy has scored 30+ PPG in four consecutive seasons and we’ll call for a 5th.
DEFENSE
Troy struggled mightily on this side of the ball LY and finished the season ranked #7 in the Sun Belt in total defense (#2 in 2018) and they allowed 34.8 PPG (#8 Sun Belt). This came after being a BRICK WALL in the three previous seasons (22.0, 18.5, 22.1). DC Brandon Hall is back for another kick at the cat and only has five returning starters to work with in 2020. On the plus side, they have a solid player to build around at each level of the defense. NT Will Choloh Jr. is an imposing presence up front, LB Carlton Martial is a tackling machine who led the team in stops and TFL (18.5) by a wide margin LY, and safety Dell Pettus is a strong piece on the back-end. The defense could also benefit from some Power 5 transfers.
We’ll project a mild improvement on defense this year but they’ll need to greatly improve their pass defense (#118 FBS LY) if they want to be taken seriously.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Trojans need to break in a new PK and punter and note that they were HORRIFIC on punt returns LY (#128 FBS). On a positive note, KR Reggie Todd bagged at TD in 2019.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – This is one of the easiest schedules in college football and it got lighter with the cancellation of tests vs NC State and Tennessee. Their opener vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff has also been toasted. In conference play they miss Louisiana from the West division. On the negative side, they have to play on the HIGHWAY in three of their last four games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing too spooky is noted.
NOTE – Waiting for final confirmation on home-and-home dates with MTSU. One in September, one in November.
Season Win Total
TBD
MEGALOCKS says:
TBD
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Troy won the Sun Belt Championship (shared or outright) in five (!) straight years from 2006 to 2010.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
This team is talented enough to make a bowl game but that possibility becomes dicey when you consider the yuuuuge uncertainty at QB and a defense that got torn to shreds on many occasions last year. The soft schedule is a big plus and we’ll call for them to book a winning record and make a minor bowl game in 2020.
Want more Troy football ?
WEBSITE
https://troytrojans.com/sports/football
FORUM
http://troyfans.com/board/2/trojan-football
NEWS
http://www.dothaneagle.com/sports/troy/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2653/troy-trojans
TWITTER
Hashtags – #OneTROY, #DTW
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