Troy Trojans 2023 College Football Preview
July 3, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 12-2
ATS – 11-3
WHOA, NELLIE!
The Trojans had a remarkable season and it was a wonderful ride for fans and anyone associated with the program. Troy won their final eleven (!) games in a row including a Sun Belt Championship Game blowout victory over Coastal Carolina and a Cure Bowl triumph over UTSA. MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB had a little SWEET ACTION on the Trojans at 10-1 to win the FUN BELT which was an added bonus.
Does Troy have what it takes to hit BACK-TO-BACK JACKS?
Troy Trojans 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
HOT TAKE incoming. Troy won’t repeat as Sun Belt champs if they don’t get better on offense. Last season the Trojans finished #11 in conference in rushing and #7 thru the air. It’s hard to criticize a QB that won so many games LY but Gunnar Watson will need to up his game and take care of the football (14-12 TD). There are still some talented bodies in the WR room but it stings to lose their top-two that combined for almost 1,600 yards and 11 TDs in 2022. The best news on offense is the return of star RB Kimani Vidal who did some serious damage LY (1,132, 10 TD), and transfer Asa Martin (career 833 rush, 603 rec) should do a fine job replacing former backup RB DK Billingsley (670, 8 TD LY). The OL loses three starters including their C and LT (!) and they’ve tried to backfill those losses via the transfer portal. This still looks like an average Sun Belt offense on paper but we’ll see how things go.
DEFENSE
Troy had one of the best defenses in the nation LY and allowed a mere 17 PPG (#8 FBS) whilst booking 41 sacks (#8). There’s reason for a little concern coming into this season as they lose their top-three tacklers including All-Universe LB Carlton Martial who booked 100+ tackles in four (!) consecutive seasons. The LB corps will obviously be weaker this season but the DL is still loaded with talent and they’ve got one of the best interior linemen in the conference in TJ Jackson (8 sacks, 14.5 TFL LY). LB Richard Jibunor is an elite PENETRATOR (7.5 sacks, 7 QBH) and the secondary is CHOCK-FULL of talent and experience. Don’t sleep on CB Reddy Steward who loves to fill up the stat sheet (12 PBU, 3 INT). This is still one of the best stop units in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH. This could be a problem area as the Trojans need to replace their excellent PK/P combo.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It looks pretty good. There’s only one really tough game in non-conference play (at Kansas St) and they get a decent draw from the East. It’s also a nice bonus to get the yuuuge game with South Alabama at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Western Kentucky (Sept 23)
This could be a spot where the home team overlooks the opposition. Note that Troy will be coming off a conference game with James Madison and they’ve got another Sun Belt test on deck.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 3
Over 8.5 -110
Under 8.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
Assuming they lose at Kansas St, it still seems reasonable that they go 9-2 in the other 11 games. There might be better value taking them in division/conference futures but we’ll leave that for another day.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
According to the 2019 census, the estimated population of Troy, Alabama was 18,957.
The Trojans are on a five-game bowl HEEEETER and haven’t lost a bowl game since 2010.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
There’s no reason to think that the Trojans can’t repeat as Sun Belt champs, but it won’t be easy. They lost some key pieces on both sides of the football and it’s never easy to repeat when everyone is COMING FOR THE KING.
Logic dictates that we view them as a major player to take down the divisional and conference spoils, but it all could come down to the November 2nd date with South Alabama. Good luck, Trojans!