Navy at Tulane – College Football Predictions
The Game
There’s an important clash between AAC opponents going down on Saturday as Navy travels to Tulane to battle the GREEN WAVE. Navy was PLASTERED by BYU in their opener (L 55-3) and it remains to be seen how they can rebound off that embarrassing effort. Tulane fell behind 24-6 to to South Alabama but ROARED back and took the game by a score of 27-24. Can the MIDDIES dig DEEP and bag a road win?
The Details
Tulane -7 Navy (48.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Tulane -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Tulane 27.75 Navy 20.75
The Match-Up:
Tulane offense vs Navy defense
Tulane cobbled together 394 yards vs South Alabama (204 R, 190 P) but didn’t get cooking until the 2nd half when they bagged 21 points. New QB Keon Howard was acceptable (191/31) and RB Tyjae Spears rushed for 105 yards. Nobody bagged more than 50 receiving yards. Navy’s defense was as bad as the score indicated. Things were made worse by the fact that the offense couldn’t stay on the field BUT it was an ABOMINATION. Starting QB Z Wilson averaged 13YPA (!) and they rushed for over 300Y. BYU. Did. That. Tulane should be able to do what they need to do on offense. Their implied team total appears reasonable.
Navy offense vs Tulane defense
Ok. We’ve said since the dawn of time that you need to have some ELECTRICITY at QB if you plan on having a good season at Army, Navy, or Air Force. BYU’s D is good but we didn’t see an effective or explosive triple option with Dalen Morris at the controls. Perry Olsen had his moments, but overall, they need to have a threat at QB to make everything work. They rushed for an impossibly low 119 net yards vs the Cougars and even ace FB J Carothers was held to just 28 yards on 9 carries. Tulane’s strength on D is the defensive line sooooooooooooo we aren’t sure that Navy will be able to flip a switch and roll on offense. Also note that Tulane gets a LOT of experience defending the triple option by playing Navy (and Army to some extent) on a regular basis.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Tulane is 10-6 ATS as home chalk under HC W Fritz…….Navy is 18-11 ATS as a road dog L10Y…..Last five years the winning margins in this matchup…..Navy by 3….Tulane by 1…..Navy by 2….Navy by 7…..Navy by 17.
Summary
The line is definitely inflated based on Navy’s week one performance BUT does that automatically mean they will be a lot better in week 2? They lost 55-3 and looked bad doing it, yo. Will take a small stab on the dog based on value but hard to see us going big in this one.
Conclusion
Lean – Navy +7.
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you need action. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are very likely to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need some sweet action and want advice.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in that market.