College Football Predictions – Tulane Green Wave 2020 College Football Preview
August 22, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 9-4
Head coach Willie Fritz has done a fine job turning the Tulane football program around. The Green Wave booked another winning season, but to be honest, it felt like a bit of a disappointment. They were talented enough to make a run at the division crown but lost all chance after losing to Memphis and Navy in back-back weeks. They dropped close games to solid UCF and Temple squads but finished well by destroying Southern Miss in the Armed Forces Bowl.
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
American Athletic Conference – #4
<Note. No divisions this year. One 11-team conference.>
Tulane Green Wave 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
Tulane took a big leap forward on offense under new OC Will Hall and upped their production from 26.8 PPG to 33.1 (!) (#5 AAC). They rushed for over 200 YPG for the fourth consecutive season and also threw for over 200/game. They’ll have to move on from QB Justin McMillan who made some mistakes (10 INT LY) but was also a BIG PLAY WAITING TO HAPPEN (2,444, 17 passing TD; led team in rushing with 744Y, 12 TD). Keon Howard will take the starting assignment this year and has shown flashes in his time with Southern Miss and in his four games with Tulane LY. The rushing attack should be fine as usual as they have a deep stable of backs including Corey Dauphine and Amare Jones who combined for over 900Y and 11 TD LY. They always get the ground game going, yo. There’s concern at WR where the Wave lose their top-two (!) WRs from a season ago and that means continuity in the THROW GAME could be problematic. The good news is that RB Amare Jones caught 34 balls LY. The offensive line returns three starters and has been decent under the watch of HC Fritz.
They might be down a notch this year given the new pieces. We project a mid-conference finish in total offense.
DEFENSE
The defense performed really well last season (#5 AAC scoring D, #4 total defense) and they’ve allowed fewer than 30 PPG in all four years of the Willie Fritz era. Things appear to be SPICY once again, particularly when you consider the experience and talent at DL and LB. They return their top-five sack leaders and star LB/DE Patrick Johnson who battled through injury LY. Recall that Johnson is a legit AAC performer when playing at 100%. The LB group is deep but they need to work in some new starters in the secondary. There is definitely potential back there with a decent safety tandem (Kuerschen, Brooks) and senior CB Jaylon Monroe.
This defense looks comparable to last year’s stop unit. They’ll need a stronger pass rush (21 sacks LY, 41 in 2018) if they want to take a step forward.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There’s continuity across the board, and overall, things look fine. PK Merek Glover hit 13/17 FG attempts LY (51/51 XP) and the return game should be strong once again. P Ryan Wright returns for duty but note that Tulane was #113 in net punting LY.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – 11 games are booked as we approach press time. The non-conference docket isn’t too bad (at South Alabama, at S Miss, Army) and note they start conference play on September 19th with a home date vs Navy. They avoid Cincinnati but need to face UCF (A) and Memphis (H).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing heinous noted.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The last time Tulane booked back-to-back winning seasons was in 1998 (!) when they finished #7 in the AP poll and finished with a mark of 12-0 under HC Tommy Bowden. The last time they had three winning seasons in a row was back in 1981. Can they turn the trick this year?
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
This appears to be a well-rounded squad with some upside if they can get decent QB play. The defense is a team strength and you know they’ll be well-coached. There aren’t any unwinnable games outside of the trip to UCF which is nasty for anyone. SURPRISE PACKAGE to stay in the conference hunt from start to finish.
Go get ’em GREEN WAVE!!
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