Tulane Green Wave 2023 College Football Preview
June 26, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 12-2
ATS – 12-2
WHOA, NELLIE!
The Green Wave had an amazing season and won their first-ever AAC Championship! It was also the first time they bagged more than seven wins (!) since 2002 when they went 8-5. Their 12 wins didn’t come cheap as they beat Big 12 champ Kansas St on the road, took down Cincinnati on the road, and defeated the mighty USC Trojans in an incredibly-exciting Cotton Bowl (W 46-45).
Can they repeat as KINGS OF THE AAC in 2023?
Tulane Green Wave 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Green Wave were efficient and balanced LY (205 YPG rushing, 237 YPG passing) and impressive when it came to SCORING the FOOTBALL (36 PPG, #19 FBS). QB Michael Pratt was phenomenal (3,010, 27-5 TD to INT, #2 rusher, 10 TD) and he’s back for another tour of duty. Pratt loses a lot of key weaponry as the Green Wave will no longer have the great Tyjae Spears at RB (1,581, 19 TD) nor their top-two receivers from LY’s squad (Wyatt, Watts) who both averaged close to 20 YPC (!) whilst booking a combined 15 TDs. There’s an apparent lack of game-changing talent at WR/RB/TE but we’ll see how things go. On the plus side, the OL looks like the best in the AAC as they return four starters and add a talented transfer from LSU in Cameron Wire who just might take the LT spot. The offense will definitely be down a notch but they’ll be good enough to win a lot of games.
DEFENSE
Tulane somehow did a great job of limiting damage (22 PPG, #32 FBS) whilst ranking #5 in the conference in pass efficiency D, #7 in sacks (24), and #4 in 3rd down defense. Things don’t look ideal on paper heading into this season as they’ll be without their top-five tacklers as well as their old DC Chris Hampton (Oregon). The DL appears to be the strength of the defense as they return the majority of the unit including a pair of 2nd Team AAC honorees in Patrick Jenkins (#1 TFL LY) and Darius Hodges (T1 sacks, 5). The LB unit is unproven, especially after losing their star and #1 tackler Dorian Williams (131, 5 sacks). The secondary is less experienced but they have a 1st Team AAC performer in CB Jarius Monroe (8 PBU, 3 sacks) and a couple of intriguing transfers added to the mix. This has the look of a very good, but not great defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
Tulane looks stacked in this area. PK Valentino Ambrosio was 11/12 on FGA LY, punter Casey Glover was a 2nd Team AAC selection, and they’ve got an electric PR in Jha’Quan Jackson (10.1, TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s good to have four of the first five games at home and GET CHO POPCONE for the September 9th visit from Ole Miss. There’s a high probability that they start 4-1 before the meat of conference play starts and they get a bye week to prepare. The bad news is that their AAC draw is pretty tough (at Memphis, at FAU, UTSA).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Southern Mississippi (Sept 16)
This is a potential letdown spot as it comes after the visit from SEC member Ole Miss. The Golden Eagles aren’t gonna be a pushover in 2023, and don’t sleep on the fact that this is the BATTLE FOR THE BELL.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 26
Over 9.5 -115
Under 9.5 -105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
This is a talented bunch but bagging ten wins isn’t gonna be easy.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The 2022 AAC title was Tulane’s first conference championship since they took down Conference USA in 1998. That team went 12-0 and were one of just two teams to complete the season undefeated. The other team? The BCS Champion Tennessee Volunteers (13-0).
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Tulane clearly has one of the best rosters in the AAC but it’s always easier to be the HUNTER as opposed to the HUNTED. The offense doesn’t have the skill position players of last year’s squad and the defense is less experienced. Thankfully, they have a star QB and a head coach who knows how to get the most out of his team. They’re a logical choice to make the AAC title game but not a MORTAL LOCK. In any event, go GREEN WAVE!